Morgan Stanley Cuts Haidilao Target Price To HK$16.5

Morgan Stanley cut its target price on Haidilao (06862) to HK$16.5 from HK$17.5 and kept an Overweight rating, according to ETNet. The broker said it updated its estimates after Haidilao's first-half 2026 interim results and briefing. It lowered its 2026-28 revenue forecasts by 3% each and trimmed net profit estimates by 5% to 9%. Morgan Stanley now assumes slightly slower revenue growth, citing weaker-than-expected first-half growth in Haidilao hotpot revenue, with average selling prices and customers per table slightly below expectations, as well as a more disciplined approach to opening non-hotpot restaurants with a greater focus on profitability. The firm said Haidilao showed disciplined cost control in the first half of 2026, with staff costs, rent costs and depreciation expenses all slightly below its expectations. It expects this to continue, with moderate operating deleveraging. It forecasts revenue growth of 9% in the second half of 2026 and operating profit growth of 13%, and sees operating profit rising at a mid-teens pace in 2027-28 as non-hotpot operations improve efficiency.