DRAM ASP Seen Rising 21% in Third Quarter, Surpassing Earlier Forecasts

Global DRAM average selling prices are expected to rise 21% quarter over quarter in the third quarter, according to the latest industry survey. According to Odaily, the forecast is above TrendForce's previous estimates of a 13% to 18% increase for traditional DRAM and an 8% to 13% increase for overall DRAM including HBM. Analysts said the price increase is being driven by several factors, including a 20% to 30% quarter-over-quarter rise in server DRAM prices and strong demand for high-speed LPDDR5. DDR5 and DDR4 spot markets have also remained active, with July prices continuing to rise from the previous month. Additional support came from increased HBM4 orders, a long-term agreement coverage ratio below 50%, and more spot and non-long-term agreement orders. Emergency purchases by some OEMs also pushed DRAM and NAND prices up by more than 20%. The market had previously worried that memory chipmakers' third-quarter results might fall short of expectations, but the latest contract price checks showed DRAM prices rising faster than market consensus. Positive guidance from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and ASML also reinforced expectations for an improving memory sector.