AI TRENDS | Sequoia Partner David Cahn Estimates AI Infrastructure Needs $3 Trillion in Industry Earnings by 2026

Sequoia Capital partner David Cahn updated his analysis of returns on AI infrastructure investment, estimating that the AI industry would need to generate $3 trillion in earnings to cover projected spending and related costs by 2026. According to PANews, citing TechCrunch, Cahn calculated global AI infrastructure investment at about $1.5 trillion in 2026, and said that after adding data center operating costs and operator profits, the required industry earnings rise to $3 trillion, which he noted may be an underestimate. Cahn said there is currently a large gap between existing revenue and the level of returns implied by his estimate. The report cited figures that Anthropic is believed to have annualized revenue of $60 billion, while OpenAI’s 2025 revenue is about $13 billion.