CITIC Securities: Aluminum Prices Seen Supported Into 2027, With $3,000/Ton Cost-Curve Floor After H2 2027

CITIC Securities said market concerns over China’s electrolytic aluminum overproduction and a ramp-up in Indonesia’s electrolytic aluminum capacity may have already been overly priced in, according to Jiemian News. Citing potential supply disruptions and signs of improving demand, the brokerage said aluminum prices remain attractive in 2026 and the first half of 2027. It added that from the second half of 2027 onward, aluminum prices should still have support from a $3,000-per-ton cost curve and incentive price level. CITIC Securities also said Chinese-funded aluminum producers remain worth watching for investment opportunities.