ANZ: Reserve Bank Of New Zealand May Still Raise Rates Despite Easing Inflation Risks

Market certainty that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise interest rates on Wednesday has declined after a sharp fall in oil prices in mid-June. According to Jin10, ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner said the urgency to raise rates has clearly eased. However, she still expects the central bank to hike, arguing that from a risk-management perspective, moving the official cash rate away from its cyclical low point is the best decision. Zollner also said the New Zealand dollar has depreciated significantly recently, which has loosened monetary conditions. She added that it remains unclear whether repeating the message for a second time in six weeks that “a rate hike is coming, but not today” is still credible.