Darkfost: Bitcoin’s Active Holder Cost Basis Near $76,700 as AVIV Ratio Signals 20% Unrealized Loss

Crypto analyst Darkfost said on X that on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin’s active holders face a cost-basis resistance level around $76,700, while valuation metrics indicate unrealized losses among active investors. According to PANews, Darkfost used the Time-Market Mean (TMM) and the AVIV ratio to assess the profit-and-loss structure of current in-market Bitcoin positions. Darkfost said TMM excludes long-dormant Bitcoin that has not moved and coins believed to be permanently lost, focusing only on the average holding cost of active market supply. He put the current TMM level at about $76,700 and described it as a clear price resistance area, noting that during the May market move, when price reached this level, many investors exited at breakeven. He added that the AVIV ratio, defined as active value divided by investor value, is hovering around 0.8 and remains in a discounted valuation zone. Darkfost said this implies the average active BTC investor is facing an unrealized loss of about 20%.