Polymarket Odds Rise to 73% That Claude Fable 5 Will Return to U.S. Customers Before July 1

Polymarket’s odds that Claude Fable 5 will be restored for U.S. customers before July 1 rose to 73%, up 33% over the past 24 hours. According to Odaily, the market will settle “Yes” if Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 to the U.S. public by the specified date, including via a public beta or public waitlist, and “No” otherwise. The settlement rules state that closed testing and private access do not qualify. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are excluded unless confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. The primary basis for settlement is Anthropic’s official announcements, with mainstream media consensus reporting used as a reference. Odaily reported that after the U.S. government imposed export controls citing national security, Anthropic suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 a few days after releasing it on June 9. While the restrictions were mainly aimed at foreign users, Odaily said Anthropic shut off access for all users, including those in the United States, due to difficulty screening user identities in real time, and switched requests to models such as Opus 4.8. Odaily said Anthropic is in high-level discussions with the White House about model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have resulted from a misunderstanding and that it is working to restore access.