Galaxy Research Expects Bitcoin Cycle Bottom at $40,000–$46,000 Before Q4 2026

Galaxy Research said Bitcoin’s four-year cycle pattern remains intact, but volatility has narrowed across cycles. According to ChainCatcher, the report said peak-to-trough declines in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles were 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while the current cycle’s maximum drawdown from the October 2025 high to date has been 51%. Because the latest peak has been comparatively moderate, Galaxy Research expects the eventual cycle bottom to be relatively shallow. Its base-case scenario places the bottom in the $40,000 to $46,000 range, potentially forming before Q4 2026. The report added that only eight months have passed since the peak, below the 12–13 months historically associated with cycle bottoms, and that most typical bottom signals have not yet appeared. On that basis, it said the current cycle bottom has not formed.