Overall Market Key TakeawaysMacro remains the main headwind, with U.S.-Iran tensions, higher oil, sticky inflation, and a restrictive central bank backdrop keeping liquidity tight.The latest CPI print does not change the broader picture. Inflation remains too high, and markets are still stuck in a higher-for-longer Fed regime.BTC ETF demand has cooled materially, with more than $5 billion in net outflows over the past four weeks, even as large products such as IBIT and FBTC continue to provide relative support.BTC has broken below key technical support, but buying interest around $58,000–60,000 suggests the market is trying to form a floor.Altcoin performance remains selective, with broad de-risking across the market but isolated strength still appearing in catalyst-driven names.Capital rotation into equities and AI-linked themes remains a real competitive force, while regulatory progress continues to support the medium-term story more than the near-term tape.The market still feels macro-heavy, and that has not changed. Geopolitical risk is back in focus, oil has moved higher, inflation remains sticky, and liquidity is not getting any easier. For crypto, that means near-term trading still favors patience, selectivity, and range-bound positioning over aggressive upside conviction.Macro and LiquidityMacro and geopolitics were the main drivers this week.Risk escalated on June 10 after President Trump confirmed active U.S. military strikes against Iran. Oil reacted immediately, with WTI briefly spiking toward $88 and Brent moving above $91. While this has not yet become a full supply-shock event, Strait of Hormuz risk is back on the table.That matters because roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any meaningful disruption would likely feed into inflation expectations, reinforce hawkish central bank pricing, and further tighten financial conditions. For crypto, the message is simple: higher oil can keep the Fed restrictive, weigh on liquidity, and pressure risk appetite.Central BanksMay CPI came in at +4.2% YoY / +0.5% MoM, while core CPI printed +0.2% MoM, slightly softer than expected. BTC briefly bounced, but the move faded quickly. Headline inflation remains far above target, so the broader setup is still inconsistent with a clean Fed pivot.Going into the June 17 meeting, markets expect no change, with the Fed likely to hold at 3.50%–3.75%. More importantly, the regime still looks higher for longer, with some risk of another hike later this year if inflation broadens. The ECB also remains on a normalization path. Overall, central banks are still not moving in a direction that supports near-term liquidity expansion for speculative assets.ETF FlowsETF flows remain one of the clearest gauges of institutional appetite, and that signal has weakened.U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF total net assets fell to around $77.6 billion as of June 9, while net outflows have exceeded $5 billion over the past four weeks. That does not mean institutional interest has disappeared, but it does show that broad-based demand has cooled.Large products such as IBIT and FBTC continue to provide relative support. But outside of that, dip-buying demand is clearly less aggressive than before. Long-term engagement remains intact, but near-term enthusiasm has faded.Technical ViewFrom a chart perspective, BTC took clear technical damage last week.Price broke below both channel support and broader trendline support, while also printing a lower low. Volume increased on both breaks, which suggests the move had real conviction behind it.That said, the market also showed solid buying interest around the $60,000 area. Even when BTC briefly dipped toward $58,000, buyers stepped in quickly. In our view, that suggests the market is trying to stabilize rather than fully unwind.For now, our desk expects BTC to trade sideways in roughly the $58,000–64,000 range as the market consolidates. A re-test of $58,000 remains possible if U.S.-Iran headlines worsen or if the SpaceX IPO aftermarket weakens broader risk sentiment.Derivatives and AltcoinsThe derivatives market still looks defensive. BTC remains below its 200-week SMA, futures open interest has risen while price has fallen, funding rates are negative across majors, and short-dated puts continue to trade at a premium to calls. The message is caution, but not outright panic.Altcoins also remain under pressure. Names such as ZEC, HYPE, NEAR, BCH, and XRP underperformed, with most of the weakness looking macro-driven rather than project-specific. There are still isolated exceptions, such as MORPHO, but overall this remains a market where selective exposure matters far more than broad beta.Capital Rotation and Bottom LineCrypto is not only dealing with macro pressure; it is also competing for capital and attention.Rotation into equities and AI-linked themes remains visible through SpaceX-related activity, large AI capital raises, and continued investor focus on growth narratives outside crypto. The CLARITY Act remains a medium-term positive for crypto market structure, but for now macro conditions are still overwhelming most regulatory positives in the short run.Our desk’s view is that this remains a market for discipline, patience, and selectivity. The longer-term case for crypto has not disappeared, but until liquidity improves and macro pressure eases, price action is likely to remain defensive and range-bound rather than trend aggressively higher.
Brian
Weiliang
Miyuki
Anais