Airlines Seen Carrying 5.1 Billion Passengers in 2026 as Profits Forecast to Halve

Airlines are forecast to carry 5.1 billion passengers in 2026, up 2.4% from a provisional 4.98 billion in 2025, but profitability is expected to fall sharply. The International Air Transport Association said, according to RTHK, that war-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have worsened the outlook, with profits projected to shrink from US$45 billion in 2025 to US$23 billion this year and net margins narrowing from 4.2% to 2.0%. IATA said net profit is expected to be US$4.50 per passenger, about half the 2025 figure, while member airlines’ turnover is forecast to rise 9% this year to US$1.165 billion. Profitability is expected to vary by region, with Middle Eastern airlines including Emirates and Qatar Airways projected to post negative net margins, and IATA said their recovery is likely to be driven more by pricing than a rapid return of volumes.