AI Revolution and Global Manufacturing Recovery to Influence Risk Assets in 2026, Huatai Securities Reports

Huatai Securities released its mid-2026 outlook report, highlighting the potential dominance of risk assets in the latter half of the year. According to Jin10, the report attributes this trend to a combination of factors, including the AI technology revolution, the recovery of global manufacturing, and limited room for significant interest rate hikes by central banks worldwide. The economic landscape is expected to continue its K-shaped divergence, with AI-related sectors and resource commodities outperforming consumption, manufacturing, and services, as well as silicon-based industries surpassing carbon-based ones. On the asset front, global liquidity is anticipated to peak and then decline, limiting valuation recovery potential. The report emphasizes the importance of the molecular end in determining the performance of major asset classes, maintaining a preference for AI-related sectors over resource commodities, gold, and bonds. In terms of specific markets, the trend in A-shares is expected to remain unchanged, with structural considerations taking precedence over indices and timing. Operationally, following extreme market divergence, there may be a temporary shift in capital from high to low, suggesting the need for flexible strategies and maintaining some cash reserves to navigate a highly volatile environment.