Polymarket Sees 25% Drop in Hormuz Strait Normalization Probability

According to Odaily, the probability of the Hormuz Strait returning to normal by June 30 has decreased to 25% on Polymarket, marking a 25% decline over the week. The total trading volume for this event has approached $12 million. The contract rules state that if the IMF Portwatch reports an average of 60 or more ships arriving at the Hormuz Strait over a seven-day period at any time from market creation until June 30, 2026, the market will resolve as 'Yes.' Otherwise, it will resolve as 'No.' The daily ship arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers, excluding those not reported by the IMF Portwatch. U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned earlier today that negotiations with Iran over a temporary peace agreement are expected to yield positive results. However, he faces potential criticism if Washington agrees to unfreeze billions of dollars of Iranian funds at Tehran's request. Trump had indicated last Friday that he would make a 'final decision,' but as discussions continue over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, possibly requiring demining, he has delayed the decision.