Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score Indicates Strong Bearish Trend

On February 26, cryptocurrency market analyst Axel shared a report on social media highlighting data from CryptoQuant. According to BlockBeats, the report reveals that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is currently at -2.28, surpassing the bear market lows of 2018 (-1.6) and 2022 (-1.4), indicating a 'strong bear' zone.The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation of market value from realized value, with negative values suggesting that market prices are below the on-chain 'fair value.' Axel attributes this anomaly to the scale of realized market value in the ETF era, where significant institutional capital inflows have raised the cost basis, making the Z-Score more sensitive to price adjustments. A rise in the Z-Score above -1.5, coupled with prices maintaining above $65,000, would be the first technical confirmation signal of exiting the pressure zone.However, the NUPL indicator, which gauges market sentiment, currently stands at 0.197, remaining in the 'hope' zone and far from the capitulation areas seen in historical cycle bottoms. During true capitulation phases, such as December 2018, March 2020, and November 2022, the NUPL would dip into negative territory, indicating net losses for most holders. The current level of 0.197 is in the middle of the historical range, still distant from the true pain zone. The data suggests that while market sentiment is weakening, it has not yet reached panic levels. Most participants are still in a position of paper profits (NUPL > 0), although confidence has noticeably shaken.