One Bitcoin is currently worth approximately 18.55 ounces of gold, according to analyst Miller Cole, against roughly 15.3 at this time last month.The ratio has again exceeded its 50-week simple moving average, which Cole reads as a bullish signal. He expects the BTC/XAU price to see significant new highs in the coming years.Gold Falling Did Most of the WorkA 21% move in the ratio across a month looks like Bitcoin strength. The components say otherwise.Bitcoin traded around $79,400 in mid-August and sits near $78,000 now — a small decline. Gold peaked above $4,587 in that window and has since fallen to roughly $4,300-$4,400, a drop of several hundred dollars.The ratio rose because the denominator shrank.That distinction matters for what the signal means. A ratio breakout driven by Bitcoin outperforming reflects capital choosing one store of value over another. A ratio breakout driven by gold underperforming reflects something happening in the gold market that may have nothing to do with Bitcoin.Gold Has Fallen Three Straight Weeks on RatesThe gold side has a specific explanation.Spot gold posted a third consecutive weekly decline through mid-September, falling to $4,296.68 as traders priced a Federal Reserve hike at 89% to 94% across venues. It remains roughly 23% below its January record of $5,600.Gold's 90-day correlation with the 10-year Treasury yield sits at −0.41 against Bitcoin's −0.17. Gold responds more than twice as strongly to the same rate move, which is why a rate-driven period separates the two assets mechanically.The 10-year reached 5.04% on September 15, its highest since July 2007, before easing to 4.96% after the Fed's dot plot pointed to just one more hike in 2026.Gold has since recovered, climbing about 1% to just below $4,400 on Friday.The Correlation Between Them Has CollapsedThe two assets have historically moved together as debasement hedges, and that relationship has broken down.CoinMarketCap data show Bitcoin's short-window correlation with gold at 0.28, against 0.69 over 30 days. That is a substantial weakening, and it occurred alongside similar breakdowns against the Dollar Index and the S&P 500 after the Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote.Earlier this year the two carried a 0.59 correlation, the highest since 2020.A ratio is only informative when both components are being driven by the same forces. At 0.28, they are not.The 50-Week Signal Has Been Crossed BeforeCole says the ratio has "again" exceeded its 50-week simple moving average, which is the qualifier worth holding onto.A level crossed repeatedly is a level the market is oscillating around rather than breaking out from. The same caution applies to Bitcoin's own 50-week lines, which have been reclaimed and lost several times this month.Moving average crossings are also lagging by construction. A 50-week average only clears after enough strong readings accumulate to drag it there, which means the move producing the signal has already happened.The Long-Term Case Rests on Supply, Not This MonthCole's expectation of significant new highs in BTC/XAU over coming years is a different argument from the one this month's data supports.The structural case is straightforward. Bitcoin's issuance is fixed and halving, while gold's supply grows roughly 1.5% to 2% annually through mining. A ratio between a fixed-supply asset and a growing-supply one should trend in one direction over long horizons, absent a collapse in demand.Central banks have been buying gold heavily — the PBOC added 650,000 ounces in a recent month, its largest since 2023, across 22 consecutive months of purchases. That is a demand source Bitcoin does not have at comparable scale.The all-time high for the ratio came in late 2021 when Bitcoin traded near $69,000 against gold around $1,800, putting it above 38. The current 18.55 is less than half that.

Analyst PlanB has declared the Bitcoin bear market over, saying the token has reclaimed the 50-week moving average at approximately $79,000 with the 100-week average around $89,000 as the next target.He pointed to Bitcoin's August close of $78,571 alongside improving indicators: the proportion of supply in profit rising from 50% to 72%, and monthly RSI climbing from 41 to 51.Two Different 50-Week Lines Are in CirculationThe level PlanB cites does not match the figure appearing elsewhere this month.Glassnode and technical coverage through September have placed the 50-week simple moving average at $81,081, where Bitcoin was rejected at an $81,265 intraday high in late August and has not cleared since.The 50-week exponential moving average sits lower at $77,430. Bitcoin reclaimed that line on Monday, lost it Tuesday when price fell below $75,000, and recovered it again this week.The EMA weights recent prices more heavily, which pulls it down during a drawdown and makes it the first line reclaimed on a recovery. The SMA is the slower, more demanding test.At $78,000, Bitcoin sits above the EMA and below the SMA. Which line counts determines whether the reclaim has happened, and PlanB's $79,000 figure matches neither exactly.The Underlying Indicators Are VerifiableThe supporting data is stronger than the level dispute suggests.Supply in profit rising from 50% to 72% is a substantial shift. That metric tracks what share of circulating Bitcoin was acquired below the current price, and a 22-point move means a large cohort of holders has crossed from underwater to profitable.It is also a lagging measure. Supply in profit rises mechanically as price rises, so it confirms the move rather than predicting the next one.Monthly RSI moving from 41 to 51 crosses the midpoint that separates bearish from bullish momentum on that timeframe. Monthly RSI is slow enough that the crossing is meaningful, though a reading of 51 is barely above neutral.The $89,000 Target Requires Clearing the Supply Wall FirstWhatever the 50-week line is worth, the obstacle between here and $89,000 is well documented.Glassnode data shows nearly 8% of total supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000 — the largest concentration at any comparable range — with the US spot ETF cohort's average cost basis in the same band.Bitcoin reached $82,284 on September 4 and has not cleared it. FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich placed the upper edge of the established range near $82,000.Roughly 8% of supply becoming profitable simultaneously creates the conditions for selling into strength, which is what "supply wall" describes. Clearing it requires sustained spot demand rather than leverage.The Demand Data Has Not Confirmed the CallSpot buying does not currently match the bullish read.CryptoQuant's spot demand metric sits at −145,000 BTC after nearly turning positive at −5,000 in late August, giving back roughly 70% of a month's improvement. The Coinbase premium index turned negative, indicating US institutional buyers paying below the global market.Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $450 million on September 15, the heaviest single-day outflow since June 25, and the funds remain roughly $1 billion negative year-to-date.Positioning is light. Santiment showed BTC-denominated open contracts falling 13.5% between September 3 and 11 against a 5% price decline, leaving positioning about 20% below pre-rally levels.Blockware Intelligence's Mitchell Askew reads that as seller exhaustion — "anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold." The competing reading is that thin positioning means absent buyers as well as absent sellers, which produces the same chart with different implications.The Week Supplied Reasons for Both ReadingsBitcoin traded around $78,000 Friday in a third consecutive day of gains, with every major higher and none of the 40 most liquid coins down.The Fed delivered its first hike since 2023 with a dot plot pointing to just one more in 2026 — below the 75 basis points markets had priced. The SEC granted an innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues two days after the Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50.WTI fell more than 5% to below $96 and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.96%, snapping an eight-day rising streak.Bitcoin is down 1.5% in September against a historical average of roughly 3% since 2013, and remains up about 32% for the quarter.PlanB's track record is mixed. His stock-to-flow model produced price targets that did not materialise across prior cycles, and the bottom call is a directional judgment rather than a model output.

The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF has cumulatively purchased approximately $51.5 million of Bitcoin over the past 20 trading days without a single day of outflow, according to Arkham.MSBT is one of the few Bitcoin funds this month to record no net outflow day.The Consistency Matters More Than the AmountAt roughly $2.6 million per session, MSBT's buying is a fraction of a percent of a complex holding around $99.5 billion in net assets.For comparison, IBIT alone took $454 million on a single day in early September, and the complex shed $450 million on September 15 after the Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote.What distinguishes MSBT is the absence of reversals across a month that produced several. The complex saw $731 million arrive on September 3, the largest single day since January, then gave much of it back. GBTC outflows drove the complex negative on September 8 while IBIT, BITB, ARKB and MSBT collectively added $41 million.Twenty consecutive sessions without a redemption day through that volatility describes a holder base that is not trading the product.Steady Accumulation Suggests Advisory AllocationThe flow pattern is consistent with a specific kind of buyer.Discretionary traders produce lumpy flows, entering and exiting on price and news. Model-driven or advisory allocations produce steady ones, because the purchases follow a schedule or a target weighting rather than a view.Morgan Stanley's wealth management platform is among the largest in the US, and the fund's distribution runs through advisers rather than primarily through retail brokerage.That reading fits the data but is not proven by it. Arkham's disclosure covers the flows, not who is behind them.The Month's Broader Flow Picture Is MixedBitcoin ETFs took in roughly $159 million on Thursday, while ether funds shed about $39 million in a third consecutive session of withdrawals after $224 million Wednesday and $141 million Tuesday.XRP funds lost about $5 million. The single US Zcash fund added nearly $47 million, its strongest day in a month that has brought it more than $230 million.Over 30 days the ether funds remain more than $1.5 billion ahead and Bitcoin nearly $2.5 billion, so the recent outflows have not reversed the longer trend.Bitcoin ETFs remain roughly $1 billion negative year-to-date despite $3.52 billion of August inflows.The Fee Gap Still Drives MigrationFlow composition within the complex has been explained more by cost than conviction for most of this year.GBTC charges 1.50% against IBIT's 0.25%, and outflows from the former have repeatedly driven complex-wide figures negative while the cheaper products added assets on the same day.MSBT's streak sits on the receiving end of that dynamic. Distinguishing genuine new allocation from migration would require issuer-level flow attribution that neither Arkham nor SoSoValue publishes.Where Bitcoin SitsBitcoin traded around $78,000 on Friday, recovering from $75,972 overnight in a third consecutive day of gains, with every major higher.The week delivered the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, a dot plot pointing to just one more increase in 2026, the Clarity Act's failure in the Senate on a 49-50 cloture vote, and the SEC's innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues two days later.WTI fell more than 5% to below $96 and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.96%, snapping an eight-day rising streak.Bitcoin faces the upper edge of its range near $82,000, with Glassnode data showing nearly 8% of supply acquired between $80,000 and $82,000 and the 50-week moving average at $81,081.

Linera and Switchboard announced closures on September 18 and September 19, respectively, as RootData’s 2026 list of dead crypto projects passed 260 entries. According to NS3.AI, Linera said it stopped operations after a Sonar sale drew close to $900,000, falling short of its $1.5 million USDC minimum target. Switchboard said remaining support will end on September 25, 2026. The project directed developers to alternative providers including Pyth and RedStone, and cited recent exploits, cheaper AI tools, slower new-chain launches and reduced budgets as factors behind the decision.

XRP network whale activity increased over the past 96 hours, with large holders appearing to have accumulated about 1.54 billion XRP worth roughly $2 billion. According to Odaily, the figures were tracked by Ali Charts.

On September 19, venture capitalist Jason Calacanis posted a critical message about Bitcoin after it moved back above $80,000, comparing it to CDs in the Spotify era and DVDs in the Netflix era. According to ChainCatcher, he said Bitcoin is weak for trading and smart contracts, offers a poor user experience, and no longer captures the public imagination. Calacanis added that if Bitcoin were going to achieve mass adoption and major use cases, it would have done so already. He also said people now expect Bitcoin to remain stable, described it as no longer a fast path to wealth, and mocked its advocates as having shifted from pirates to suit-wearing figures sharing awkward memes. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor responded that Bitcoin has grown into a $1.6 trillion success and the world’s most valuable digital asset. He said digital capital is the killer app and that preserving wealth across generations is a bigger ambition than pleasing dinner guests. Saylor also said the orange tie will stay on.

B.AI said its cumulative registered users have surpassed 2,700,048 as of September 19, rising from 2.6 million to more than 2.7 million. According to Odaily, the platform attributed the increase to ongoing adjustments to model supply and pricing, along with expanded agent capabilities.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said the ECB must be mindful of upside inflation risks but should not act hastily, according to Bloomberg. He said the central bank should remain vigilant.

UBS는 인공지능(AI) 자본 지출 전망치를 대폭 상향 조정했는데, 메모리 비용의 급격한 상승이 이번 지출 확대의 핵심 요인으로 작용하고 있으며, 그 영향으로 AI 투자 주기의 구조와 경제적 논리가 근본적으로 변화하고 있다.

이더리움은 이미 토큰화된 금융의 결제 계층이 되었을지도 모릅니다. 하지만 전 세계 금융 시장을 진정으로 뒷받침하기 위해서는 여전히 해결해야 할 핵심 과제가 하나 남아 있습니다. 바로 ‘속도’입니다.

인공지능, 기술, 중국의 신에너지 자동차 기업들은 모두 AI 기업이 되고 싶어 한다. ‘황금재경’에 따르면, 이들은 지난 10년 동안 모은 모든 자산을 다음 판에 걸었다.

OpenAI는 더 높은 기업 가치를 바탕으로 새로운 자금 조달을 추진하는 한편, 향후 5년간 자유 현금 흐름이 심각한 적자를 기록할 것이라고 밝혔으며, 장기적인 자금 압박이 만만치 않을 것으로 보인다.

로빈후드, 코인베이스, 서클, 코인베이스, 로빈후드, 서클이 잇달아 시장에 진출했다——토큰화된 자산의 다음 전투는 왜 ‘배분’인가? 골든파이낸스, 3대 발행사에도 여전히 배분 문제가 남아 있다.

인공지능 업계의 규제 논란은 정책 차원에서 법적 분쟁으로 번지고 있다.

‘골든 위클리’는 골든파이낸스가 선보이는 주간 블록체인 업계 요약 코너로, 일주일 동안의 주요 뉴스, 시세 및 선물 데이터, 채굴 업계 정보, 프로젝트 동향, 기술 발전 등 업계 동향을 다룹니다.

골드파이낸스가 암호화폐 및 블록체인 업계 아침 뉴스레터 《골드 8시》 3186호를 발행하며, 가장 최신의 디지털 화폐 및 블록체인 업계 소식을 가장 빠르게 전해드립니다.

연방준비제도(Fed), 달러, 나스닥 지수부터 스테이블코인에 이르기까지: 비트코인(BTC)은 점점 더 복잡한 자산으로 변모하고 있다.

유니스왑(Uniswap)이 미국 주식 토큰화 시장의 거래량 80%를 차지했으며, 누적 거래액이 100억 달러를 돌파했고, UNI 가격은 하루 만에 30% 이상 급등했다.