Crypto News: Crypto Lags Gold and Stocks in 2025, but Analysts See Catch-Up Rally Potential in 2026
The cryptocurrency market has sharply underperformed traditional assets in recent months, trailing both precious metals and equities. But analysts say 2026 could mark a turning point, with crypto positioned for a potential “catch-up” rally as capital rotation, liquidity shifts and whale behavior begin to change.According to market intelligence firm Santiment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have lagged gold and stocks since November — yet historical patterns suggest the gap may not persist.Crypto Underperforms as Gold and Stocks RecoverSince the start of November:Gold is up 9%S&P 500 has gained 1%Bitcoin is down roughly 20%, trading near $88,000The divergence reflects a broader shift in investor behavior during late 2025, as market participants favored traditional hedges amid macro uncertainty.“Bitcoin and crypto remain notably behind other major asset classes,” Santiment analysts said in a recent post, adding that this lag historically creates room for future catch-up once sentiment and liquidity reverse.Gold and Silver Dominate the Debasement Trade in 2025Precious metals have emerged as the clear winners of the so-called “debasement trade” this year — a strategy that favors hard assets expected to preserve purchasing power during periods of fiscal strain and loose monetary policy.Gold is up nearly 70% year-to-dateSilver has surged roughly 150%Bitcoin is down about 6% over the same periodGold’s rally has been especially notable from a technical perspective. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the metal has remained above its 200-day moving average for approximately 550 consecutive trading sessions, the second-longest such streak on record, surpassed only by the post-2008 financial crisis period.This strength reflects sustained demand for traditional stores of value as investors hedge against inflation, currency debasement and geopolitical risk.Why Bitcoin Lagged — and Why That Could ChangeBitcoin bulls had widely expected the debasement trade to propel BTC higher in 2025. Instead, Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in early October before retracing sharply, falling below $90,000 by year-end.Analysts argue the underperformance stems less from structural weakness and more from timing and positioning.“Gold has been leading Bitcoin by roughly 26 weeks,” said Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital. “Gold’s consolidation last summer closely resembles Bitcoin’s pause today. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow — but with greater torque.”In past cycles, Bitcoin has often lagged macro hedges initially, only to outperform once liquidity conditions improve and speculative capital returns.Whale Behavior Signals Potential Inflection PointOn-chain data suggests the groundwork for a shift may already be forming.Santiment reports that large Bitcoin holders (whales) slowed accumulation during the second half of 2025, while smaller wallets increased buying activity — a pattern often associated with late-cycle distribution.“Historically, the strongest transitions from bear phases to bullish ones occur when large wallets begin accumulating while retail capitulates,” Santiment analysts noted.Importantly, long-term Bitcoin holders have stopped selling for the first time in six months, with holdings stabilizing after declining from 14.8 million BTC in July to roughly 14.3 million in December.Early Signs of Capital Rotation Back to CryptoSome market observers believe capital rotation is already underway.Garrett Jin, former CEO of BitForex, pointed to rising on-chain activity as an early signal. Data from Nansen shows active Bitcoin addresses increased 5.5% in 24 hours, even as transaction counts fell — a pattern often associated with accumulation rather than speculation.“The short squeeze in metals is over,” Jin said. “Capital is beginning to rotate back into crypto. Capital is the same — sell high, buy low.”Investor CyrilXBT echoed that view, calling the current environment “classic late-cycle positioning before a shift,” adding that markets often move before narratives catch up.2026 Outlook: Crypto Catch-Up Scenario Gains TractionPrediction markets appear aligned with the catch-up thesis. On Polymarket:Bitcoin holds a 40% probability of being the best-performing asset in 2026Gold sits at 33%Equities trail at 25%Analysts argue that if liquidity conditions ease and macro risks remain elevated, Bitcoin could resume its historical role as a high-beta hedge, outperforming both gold and equities once momentum turns.Crypto’s underperformance in 2025 stands in stark contrast to gold and silver’s explosive gains. But analysts say this divergence may be setting the stage for a powerful reversion.With whale selling slowing, long-term holders stabilizing, and capital rotation signals emerging, 2026 could offer crypto a chance to close the gap — or even overtake traditional hedges once again.As Santiment concluded: “The opportunity for crypto to play catch-up remains very much alive.”
