Tim Draper said Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within two years in an interview with Coinage on Sept. 10. According to NS3.AI, Draper said wider retail acceptance could encourage consumers to move savings from dollars into BTC. He also said AI and blockchain-based smart contracts may make Bitcoin easier to use.

Bitcoin formed a golden cross earlier this week, the technical signal that occurs when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day and is conventionally treated as a precursor to a bullish rally. Historically, it has not worked that way. Bitcoin has tended to generate much of its return in the lead-up to the crossover, then pull back shortly after the signal appears. The latest occurrence fits the pattern. Bitcoin climbed from $62,000 to $82,000 ahead of the cross, which formed at the start of the week, and has since fallen from around $80,000 to $77,000. Four Prior Instances, Four Pullbacks The record across recent cycles is consistent. In 2021, Bitcoin climbed from $35,000 in July to around $52,000 in September — a gain of roughly 49%. The golden cross formed, and price subsequently dropped to around $40,000. At the start of 2023, Bitcoin rallied from $16,000 to $23,000, creating a golden cross in February. It then retreated to around $20,000 in March. October 2024 repeated it. Bitcoin advanced from $54,000 to $70,000 ahead of the crossover before slipping to around $67,000 heading into November. Most recently, Bitcoin bottomed near $76,000 in April 2025 and rallied to approximately $110,000 in May. After the golden cross formed, it pulled back to around $100,000 in June. In each case the pre-cross advance ran between roughly 30% and 49%. In each case the post-cross move was lower. The Lag Is Built Into the Arithmetic This is a mechanical property of the indicator rather than a coincidence. Moving averages are computed from past closing prices. A 50-day average only rises above a 200-day average after enough strong closes have accumulated to drag it there — which means the price move producing the signal has already happened by the time the signal appears. Treating a golden cross as an entry trigger therefore inverts the causation. What it confirms is that a trend has established itself, which has value for conviction and position sizing, but the confirmation arrives late by construction. The same logic applies in reverse to the pullbacks. A market that has run 30% to 49% into a crossover is extended, and extended markets consolidate. The indicator is not causing the pullback — it is arriving at the point where one becomes likely. Two Analyses of the Same Signal Reached Opposite Conclusions FxPro analysts took a different view of this week's crossover. They acknowledged that similar signals in October 2024 and May 2025 produced nothing, but argued the current instance differs in context — following a prolonged bull market rather than appearing inside a correction. "The current situation bears a closer resemblance to what we saw in 2019," they wrote, pointing to a 90% rally in under two months after that signal. That leaves the historical record at four documented pullbacks against one cited exception. The disagreement is not about what happened in 2021, 2023, 2024 or 2025 — both readings agree those signals failed. It is about whether 2026 resembles those years or 2019. Bitcoin falling from $80,000 to $77,000 since the cross confirmed is, so far, consistent with the four rather than the one. The Macro Backdrop Is Doing the Work The current pullback has causes unrelated to the indicator. WTI topped $100 and Brent cleared $105 after Saudi Arabia told OPEC its crude production fell to 6.238 million barrels per day, the lowest since 1990. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.92% and the two-year 4.50% — nearly 100 basis points above the fed funds target. September hike odds rose to 76%. Core PPI came in softer than expected at 0.2% against 0.3% forecast and did nothing to slow the bond selloff. Whether the cross resembles 2019 or the four failures depends on whether that backdrop turns, not on the moving averages themselves. The Levels That Matter Now Bitcoin trades at $77,003 after reaching $82,000 before the crossover. Glassnode data shows nearly 8% of Bitcoin's supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000 — the largest concentration at any comparable range — with the US spot ETF cohort's average cost basis in the same band and the 50-week moving average at $81,081. The Bitfinex analyst team had described the setup as a squeeze running into a defined population of sellers, with spot demand absorbing overhead supply between $77,100 and $80,000. Bitcoin now sits at the lower edge of that zone. CPI arrives Friday, the Clarity Act cloture vote September 15 and the Fed decision September 16.

According to the BBC, the Israeli military said it destroyed a large underground Hezbollah complex in southern Lebanon using more than 1,000 tonnes of explosives. It said two tunnels spanning more than 2km beneath the Ali Taher Ridge were blown up, triggering seismic activity equivalent to a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, according to the US Geological Survey. The Israel Defense Forces said the site included a command center used by Hezbollah's Badr unit and stored rockets, missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, anti-tank weapons, mines and explosives. It said the destruction completed a mission to eliminate eight tunnels and establish a security zone in the area. Lebanese media reported fresh Israeli strikes elsewhere in the south on Thursday, while the Lebanese army increased deployments in areas outside Israeli control.

Apple unveiled its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, at its autumn product launch event, and demand for proxy purchases and preorders has already emerged more than a month before official sales begin, according to Jiemian News. On Dewu App, a preorder order for the iPhone Duo has already been completed at 39,999 yuan, up 24,000 yuan, or about 150%, from the official starting price of 15,999 yuan. Some sellers on the platform are quoting as much as 59,999 yuan, 44,000 yuan above the official starting price.

OpenAI와 Anthropic이라는 두 주요 연구소에서 근무했던 한 연구원이 사임을 발표했는데, 그의 작별 게시물에는 감사의 말은 없고 경고 한 마디만 담겨 있었다.

Russia's central bank and the Reserve Bank of India are working together to establish a mechanism for settling bilateral trade with digital currencies to improve cross-border payment efficiency. According to ChainCatcher, Russia has already launched the digital ruble, while India's digital currency is also being used in government projects. The two sides are expected to discuss digital currency trade settlement with BRICS countries at a summit in New Delhi.

Japanese payment service provider Netstars has signed an MOU with Kaia DLT Foundation, the operator of the Kaia L1 blockchain, to advance stablecoin payments at physical stores in Japan. According to Foresight News, the partnership will connect stablecoins on Kaia with Netstars' StarPay and Stablecoin Pay services. The companies aim to enable stablecoins pegged to the Korean won, Hong Kong dollar, New Taiwan dollar, and Southeast Asian currencies to be used at stores in Japan.

월가의 전통적인 거물들이 주도하고 암호화폐 거래소가 깊이 관여하는 “주식 토큰화 경쟁”은 이제 막 시작되었을지도 모른다

CLARITY 법안이 없더라도, 미국은 스테이블코인, 토큰 발행, 증권 토큰화, 퍼페추얼 선물 등 분야에서 규제 체계가 점차 명확해지고 있다.

이 기사는 ‘자금세탁방지(AML) 심사’를 명목으로 한 새로운 유형의 사기 수법을 폭로했다.

웰스파고 은행은 실제 위험을 지적하면서도 은행에 가장 유리한 해석을 내놓았다.

주요 거래소들이 잇달아 실제 자금을 투입해 자사와 암호화폐 거래소가 이미 확보해 둔 사용자 및 유통 채널을 하나로 묶기 시작했다.

DBS와 씨티는 SWIFT의 디지털 원장을 통해 토큰화된 예금을 활용하여 싱가포르와 미국 간 주말 미화 결제를 완료했으며, 이 거래는 단 몇 분 만에 처리되었다.

샘 뱅크먼-프리드는 FTX 붕괴와 관련된 소송을 미국 대법원으로 가져가며, 대법관들에게 자신의 사기 유죄 판결을 뒤집고, 재심을 명령하며, 자신의 범죄 피해자들에 대한 배상금으로 사용될 수 있는 110억 달러 규모의 몰수 처분을 취소해 줄 것을 요청하고 있다.

소수점 한 자리 차이로 다음 주 연방준비제도(Fed)의 금리 인상 여부가 결정될 수 있다. 핵심 CPI가 전월 대비 0.2% 상승하면 금리 동결이, 0.3% 상승하면 금리 인상이 단행된다.

코인베이스는 소셜 기능에 중점을 둔 실험이 기대에 미치지 못하자 ‘베이스(Base) 앱’의 이름을 다시 ‘코인베이스 월렛’으로 되돌렸습니다. 이 지갑은 이제 자체 보관 방식을 유지하면서도, 무기한 선물, 예측 시장, 토큰화된 주식 등을 포함한 멀티체인 거래에 주력하고 있습니다.