BlackRock's 2026 Global Outlook Highlights AI Investment and Economic Impacts
According to BlockBeats, on January 13, BlackRock released its 2026 global outlook report, emphasizing the significant scale of AI infrastructure investments. The report suggests that 'micro is macro,' indicating that these investments are substantial enough to influence the broader macroeconomic landscape, presenting challenges such as increased leverage and the illusion of diversification. BlackRock maintains a pro-risk stance, favoring U.S. equities, particularly those related to AI, and sees opportunities in active investments.
The report outlines three core investment themes:
Micro is macro: AI infrastructure is dominated by a few companies, with capital expenditures projected to reach $5-8 trillion between 2025 and 2030. This investment is expected to support U.S. economic growth in 2026, contributing three times the historical average, despite a cooling labor market. However, there is uncertainty about whether revenues will match expenditures and how much will return to tech giants. While AI may accelerate innovation, historical trends over the past 150 years suggest that major technological changes have not disrupted the U.S.'s long-term 2% growth trend. Nonetheless, a 'growth breakout' scenario is now conceivable.
Leveraging up: The initial massive investments by AI builders, coupled with delayed revenues, lead to increased system leverage. High government debt adds to this vulnerability. BlackRock favors private credit and infrastructure financing while tactically underweighting long-term government bonds, such as U.S. Treasuries, due to the adverse effects of high leverage and rising capital costs on long-term debt.
Diversification mirage: Under major trends, traditional diversification strategies may actually concentrate bets. Investors need to actively manage risk, maintain portfolio flexibility with a 'Plan B,' and seek unique returns from private markets and hedge funds.
The report also highlights that BlackRock views digital assets, particularly stablecoins, as foundational to payment and settlement systems, rather than merely speculative assets. Stablecoins are seen as 'digital dollar rails,' evolving from crypto-native tools to bridges connecting traditional finance with digital liquidity, expanding into areas like cross-border payments and settlements, especially in regions where traditional systems are slow, costly, or fragmented. The report suggests that crypto is integrating into mainstream finance, with stablecoins maturing as infrastructure supporting global liquidity flows and overlapping with traditional finance.
