영국 스카이 뉴스에 따르면, 트럼프 대통령은 이란과의 협상에서 계획된 주요 사항 대부분이 완전히 합의되었다고 밝혔다. (진시)

Odaily Seer 채널의 모니터링에 따르면, Polymarket의 “트럼프 대통령이 4월 30일 이전에 이란에 대한 군사 작전 종결을 발표할 것”이라는 확률은 한때 78%까지 급등했으나, 현재 61%를 기록하고 있으며 지난 24시간 동안 30% 상승했다. 현재까지 “트럼프 대통령이 이란에 대한 군사 작전 종결을 언제 발표할 것인가”라는 이벤트 계약의 총 거래량은 1,566만 9,000달러를 돌파했다. 이 이벤트 계약의 규칙은 다음과 같습니다: 트럼프 대통령, 미국 정부 또는 군 당국이 2026년 2월 28일에 시작한 이란에 대한 군사 작전이 지정된 날짜(미국 동부 표준시 기준) 이전에 종료되었다고 공개적으로 공식 발표할 경우, 해당 시장은 “예”로 판정되며, 그렇지 않을 경우 “아니오”로 판정됩니다. 유효한 발표는 작전이 종료되었음을 명확히 밝혀야 합니다. 비공식 성명, 익명의 소식통이 전한 성명 또는 유출된 정보는 모두 요건을 충족하지 않으며, 트럼프의 공개 서면 성명(예: 그의 개인 ‘Truth Social’ 계정 게시물)은 유효한 성명으로 간주됩니다. 또한 트럼프의 소셜 미디어 계정에 게시된 동영상도 유효한 성명으로 간주됩니다. 이 시장의 주요 판정 근거는 미국 정부 및/또는 그 공식 대표의 공식 성명이지만, 동시에 다른 신뢰할 수 있는 보도의 공감대를 참고할 것입니다. 앞서 트럼프는 이란과 2주간의 휴전에 합의했다고 발표했으며, 미국이 호르무즈 해협에서 점점 더 심해지는 선박 교통 체증 문제를 해결하는 데 도움을 줄 것이라고 밝혔습니다. 그러나 트럼프가 Truth Social에 게시한 글에는 미국이 해당 해협을 어떻게 도울지에 대한 구체적인 세부 사항이 제시되지 않았으며, 이란이 특정 선박의 해협 통과에 대해 통행료를 계속 부과할 가능성에 대해서도 언급되지 않았습니다. Odaily Seer 선지 채널은 예측 시장을 지속적으로 주시하며, 가격이 형성되기 전에 변화를 포착합니다.

Three newly created wallets have collectively profited $484,575 by betting on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, raising concerns of potential insider trading. According to Cointelegraph, these wallets were established and funded on Tuesday, with no prior activity before engaging in Polymarket's 'US x Iran ceasefire by April 7' market. Blockchain data shared by Lookonchain on Wednesday revealed the profits for the three wallets amounted to $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450, respectively. The bets were placed with probabilities ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%. The latest trader on Polymarket made their initial trade in the 'US x Iran ceasefire by April 7' market at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, approximately eight and a half hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement on TruthSocial at 10:32 pm UTC. The other two traders placed their first bets at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday. The bets were settled after the U.S. and Iran's Supreme National Security Council agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, although both nations have not ruled out the possibility of further military actions. Prediction markets, which have become a rapidly growing application for cryptocurrency, consistently exceed $10 billion in monthly trading volume. However, these platforms are under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators worldwide due to concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. In January, U.S. lawmakers proposed a bill to prevent government officials from trading on prediction market platforms after a Polymarket user gained over $400,000 from a market concerning Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture by U.S. forces, raising suspicions of insider knowledge. In February, Israeli authorities arrested and charged two individuals for allegedly using confidential information to place bets on Polymarket regarding Israel striking Iran in June 2025. One of the arrested individuals was a member of Israel's military. To combat insider trading, Polymarket and Kalshi have implemented measures to identify and prevent such activities. In February, Kalshi announced the formation of an independent advisory committee and a partnership with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs to detect, investigate, and address market abuse.

인공지능, OpenClaw, AI 에이전트, LLM, DeepSeek, AI 에이전트용 대형 모델 선정: IQ는 기본 조건, EQ는 결정적 요인, 골든파이낸스, 몇 가지 중국산 주요 AI 대형 모델에 대한 실제 체험.

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF is poised to begin trading on NYSE Arca on Wednesday, carrying an annual fee of 0.14%. According to NS3.AI, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted an NYSE listing notice that suggests an April 8 launch date. The fund is expected to hold actual bitcoin and will commence with approximately $1 million in seed capital.

Germany's seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders for February increased by 0.9%, falling short of the anticipated 2.00% growth, according to Jin10. The previous month's figures had shown a significant decline of 11.10%, highlighting a recovery in the sector despite not meeting expectations.

Web3 asset data platform RootData has issued a transparency alert on Twitter, highlighting missing information from projects such as Sentism.AI, Fortune, Ultima, Etherex, and Solomon Labs. According to ChainCatcher, RootData is calling on project teams to submit or update their data on the platform to enhance their transparency scores. RootData also plans to continue monitoring and exposing projects that lack essential information. RootData's transparency score is designed to assess the completeness and timeliness of project information, aiming to reflect the level of disclosure. The platform urges project teams to claim their projects immediately. The transparency score ranges from A to F, with lower scores indicating less comprehensive information disclosure and higher risks of misconduct, warranting increased caution from investors.

Ether (ETH) is showing signs of resilience as buying pressure mounts, suggesting a potential 'regime shift' in the market. According to Cointelegraph, analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining the $2,000 support level for a positive trend change. Onchain data indicates a resurgence in demand, with Ether's net taker volume pointing to the formation of a stronger bottom. This metric, which measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets, has remained positive since March 6, reaching $140 million on March 16. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a recent X post that buying pressure is prevailing, with $104 million currently observed. This marks the first instance since the previous bear market where such a shift is evident in Ethereum derivatives. If this dynamic continues and the spot market and ETFs support the move, Ethereum could potentially restart a positive trend. Further reinforcing this outlook is the futures open interest (OI), which represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled or closed. The metric now stands at 6.4 million ETH, nearing its all-time high of 7.8 million ETH reached in July 2025. Darkfost highlighted in another X post that after a decline to 5 million ETH in October, open interest has gradually recovered, indicating that derivatives markets on Ethereum remain highly active. Meanwhile, spot Ether ETF flows have turned positive, with these investment products recording $120 million in net inflows on Monday, the highest since mid-March. This shift points to renewed demand from U.S. investors following a period of outflows, potentially driving ETH prices higher. For Ether to maintain its cautiously bullish stance, it must hold the $1,800-$2,000 support zone, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle converge. Analyst Ted Pillows remarked in a Tuesday X post that as long as the $2,000 support zone holds, Ethereum could experience another upside move. However, losing this level could lead to a new yearly low. The significance of this support is underscored by cost basis distribution, with over 3.5 million ETH acquired around $2,000. Below this, the next defense line is the $1,750-$1,800 demand zone, where investors acquired 1.36 million ETH. A drop below this level could result in a free-fall toward the symmetrical triangle's measured target at $1,460, or 30% below the current price. As Cointelegraph reported, holding the $1,800-$2,000 range would demonstrate strength among bulls, who must push the ETH/USD pair above the $2,400 range high to regain control.

Ethereum's buyer strength is showing signs of resurgence, according to Cointelegraph. According to BlockBeats, on-chain data and derivatives market indicators suggest a positive shift, though analysts caution that maintaining the $2,000 support level is crucial. CryptoQuant data reveals that Ethereum's net taker volume has remained positive since March 6, peaking at $140 million on March 16 and currently standing at $104 million. This metric measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted, "This is the first time since the last bear market that we've observed such a mechanism shift in the Ethereum derivatives market." He added that if this trend continues and the spot market along with ETFs follow suit, Ethereum could resume its upward trajectory. In terms of futures open interest, the current position is 6.4 million ETH, nearing the historical high of 7.8 million ETH set in July 2025, and has gradually increased from the low of 5 million ETH in October last year. Spot Ethereum ETF fund flows also turned positive on Monday, with a net inflow of $120 million, marking the highest single-day inflow since mid-March. On the price front, analyst Ted Pillows stated, "As long as the $2,000 support level holds, Ethereum is poised for another rally; however, if it falls below this level, a new low for the year could follow." Glassnode's cost basis distribution data shows that over 3.5 million ETH have a holding cost concentrated around $2,000. If this area is breached, the next support lies between $1,750 and $1,800, where approximately 1.36 million ETH were accumulated. Should the price fall further below these supports, the measured target of the symmetrical triangle points to $1,460, about 30% lower than the current price.

Hyperscale Data has announced preliminary unaudited consolidated revenue figures for the first quarter ending March 31, 2026. According to Foresight News, the company anticipates consolidated revenue of approximately $43 million to $45 million, marking a 72% to 80% increase compared to the $25 million reported in the first quarter of 2025. The expected revenue growth is primarily attributed to contributions from its subsidiaries, Gresham and Ault Lending. The quarter includes around $10 million in revenue generated by Gresham following its bankruptcy restructuring completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was not accounted for in the previous year's figures. Additionally, Hyperscale Data forecasts that Ault Lending will contribute approximately $10 million in high-margin revenue for the quarter.

캐시 우드(Cathie Wood)가 이끄는 아크 인베스트(Ark Invest)가 로빈후드(HOOD) 주식을 약 1,300만 달러어치 매수했다. (코인텔레그래프)

바이낸스의 창립자 차오 창펑(CZ)은 신간 《바이낸스 인생》에서 사고방식, 팀, 사업과 협력, 소통, 제품, 대외 관계, 여가 생활 등 7가지 주요 측면을 통해 자신의 행동 원칙과 업무 방식을 기록하였다.

FDIC는 준비금, 상환, 자본 및 리스크 관리 등을 포괄하는 스테이블코인 발행사 대상 규정을 제시했다. FDIC는 스테이블코인에 예금 보험이 적용되지 않을 것임을 확인했으며, 향후 60일 동안 대중의 의견을 수렴할 예정이다.

"진정으로 무서운 것은 미토스가 악의적인 자들에 의해 악용될 수 있다는 사실이 아니다. 미토스는 우리가 안전하다고 믿었던 것들이 다른 차원에서는 애초에 안전하지 않았다는 사실을 처음으로 깨닫게 해주었기 때문이다."

트럼프 대통령은 새벽에 이란에 대한 공격을 일시 중단하겠다고 발표했고, 이란 역시 휴전 협정을 수용한다고 밝혔다. 중동의 긴장 상황이 완화되면서 위험 선호도가 크게 높아졌다. 비트코인(BTC)은 반등해 7만 2천 달러대로 회복했고, 글로벌 시장은 잠시 숨을 돌릴 수 있게 되었다. 앞으로 어떻게 전개될까?

도널드 트럼프 대통령이 이란에 호르무즈 해협 재개방을 요구하며 설정한 4월 7일 마감 시한이 다가오고, 인프라 공격 위협이 고조되는 가운데 비트코인은 6만 8,500달러 선을 굳건히 지키고 있다. 그러나 4억 7,100만 달러에 달하는 ETF 자금 유입은 시장이 재앙이 아닌 긴장 완화를 예상하고 있음을 시사한다.

솔라나(Solana) 기반 탈중앙화 거래소(DEX)인 스태블(Stabble)은 전직 직원이 북한과 연관된 것으로 드러나자 이용자들에게 자금을 인출할 것을 권고했다. 보안 침해 사례는 보고되지 않았으나, 총 예치 자산(TVL)은 175만 달러에서 66만 3천 달러 미만으로 떨어졌다.

암호화 네트워크는 원래 사람이 사용하도록 설계되었습니다. 자율 지능 시스템은 인간의 이해력과 판단력을 기계 고유의 동등한 기능으로 대체해야 합니다.

Anthropic은 새로운 프로젝트인 ‘Project Glasswing’을 발표했으며, 동시에 완전히 새로운 초고성능 모델인 ‘Claude Mythos Preview’를 개발했다고 밝혔다.

미국, 트럼프, 이란, 석유, 휴전 합의와 각국의 입장 표명. 골든파이낸스, 미·이란 휴전 합의에 관한 몇 가지 초기 관찰. 참고용입니다.