Bitcoin Traders Eye $73,000 Retest as 21-Week EMA Holds as Resistance; Sub-$60,000 Risk Remains
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is trading below the 21-week exponential moving average at $78,400, a level that has acted as resistance since October 2025Analyst Rekt Capital warns continued rejection at the 21-week EMA could force a retest of the Double Bottom breakout level near $73,000Trader Killa sees a "strong chance" of a $73,000 revisit and argues even a close above $80,000 may not prevent new macro lows below $60,000A bearish May scenario is flagged, with any early-month strength potentially marking a pivot high before a deeper correctionBitcoin remains on track for its best monthly close since November 2024, but the weekly trend line is keeping bulls in check heading into the weekend
Bitcoin is facing a critical test heading into the weekend, with the 21-week exponential moving average sitting at $78,400 continuing to reject price attempts higher -- a level that has capped upside since October 2025 and is increasingly in focus as traders debate whether April's strong monthly gains can survive into May.
BTC/USD has traded below the 21-week EMA for the entirety of the current bear market cycle. Despite a strong April recovery that has taken Bitcoin from lows near $60,000 to the high $70,000s, bulls have so far failed to reclaim the moving average as support -- a prerequisite, analysts say, for confirming a genuine trend reversal.
Rekt Capital: $73,000 Retest on the Table
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital laid out the bear case clearly in an X post on Friday. "Bitcoin continues to resist from the 21-week EMA," he wrote, warning that without a decisive reclaim of the level as support, the moving average "could indeed force BTC into a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom price broke out from last week."
The Double Bottom structure, which Bitcoin broke out from in the prior week, has its top boundary near the $73,000 area -- making that level the primary downside target in a rejection scenario. The 21-week EMA also forms one side of Bitcoin's bull market support band, a technical zone that historically separates bull and bear market regimes on the weekly chart.
Sub-$60,000 Still on the Table
Trader Killa, who has maintained a bearish outlook on Bitcoin through the April recovery, went further, arguing that even a monthly close above $80,000 may not be sufficient to prevent a deeper macro correction.
"With the monthly close next week, volatility and fakeouts are likely. If May opens strong and pushes higher early in the month, there's a good chance that move could mark the pivot high before a bearish May follows," Killa wrote on X Friday. "Either way, a close above resistance does not always mean true acceptance. In a broader macro downtrend, breaks above key levels can often be used to trap late positions."
Killa flagged a "strong chance" of price revisiting $73,000 and kept sub-$60,000 in play as a broader macro downside target -- a scenario that would represent a full retracement of April's gains and a retest of February cycle lows.
Bulls Still Have a Case
The bearish technical read sits in tension with April's fundamental backdrop. Bitcoin is on track for its best monthly performance since November 2024, up approximately 14.3% month-to-date. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows totaling $2.12 billion. Exchange BTC balances sit at multiyear lows, and the Bull Score Index has entered neutral territory for the first time in the current bear cycle.
The monthly close, now one week away, will be the decisive data point. A weekly and monthly close above the 21-week EMA at $78,400 would shift the technical picture materially. Failure to hold above it keeps the $73,000 retest scenario firmly in play heading into what could be a volatile May.
