Bitcoin Drawdowns Have Narrowed Across Recent Cycles, Analysts Say

Bitcoin market narratives have repeatedly centered on the idea that this time is different over the past 18 years, but the broader cycle structure has largely persisted. According to Odaily, BTC’s maximum drawdowns were about 85% in 2014, 84% in 2017, 77% in 2020 to 2021, and 53% in 2024 to 2025, showing a gradual decline in drawdown size. Galaxy Digital head of firmwide research Alex Thorn shared a chart saying the current BTC drawdown is noticeably smaller than in earlier cycles. Analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin may be shifting from a four-year cycle to a six-year to eight-year cycle as the supply shock from halvings weakens, though he said the view cannot yet be confirmed. Previous cycles saw gains from the bottom to the next all-time high of about 580 times, 130 times, 22 times, and 8 times. Analyst James Check said Bitcoin’s cycle lows have moved higher each round while tops have remained relatively stable, and Jesse Myers said BTC may have just entered a two-year to three-year bull market.