Pantera Capital Estimates Hyperliquid’s Addressable Market at $10 Trillion in Daily Notional Volume

Pantera Capital said Hyperliquid’s potential addressable market could total about $10 trillion in daily notional trading volume, spanning 0DTE options and leveraged ETF activity, commodity derivatives, and largely off-chain FX derivatives. According to ChainCatcher, Pantera’s breakdown includes about $200 billion in 0DTE options and leveraged ETF trading, about $2 trillion in commodity derivatives trading, and about $8 trillion in FX derivatives trading that it said is currently mostly not on-chain. Pantera said if Hyperliquid can consistently capture a low single-digit share of that combined volume, its revenue potential could be about five times its current level. The firm also provided a scenario analysis assuming the HIP-3 market reaches $36,500 trillion in annualized notional volume and Hyperliquid captures a 1% share. Under assumptions of a 2-basis-point blended fee rate and a 50% Hyperliquid economic split, Pantera estimated Hyperliquid could generate about $3.7 billion in revenue. Pantera added that regulation is Hyperliquid’s biggest risk. It noted that perpetual contracts are not yet fully available in the United States, and said that if the U.S. moves to legalize such products and list them on regulated platforms, Hyperliquid could face stronger competition and some U.S. user trading volume could shift to compliant venues. Pantera also said Hyperliquid could eventually launch a regulated version for the U.S. market, similar to other platforms.