IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3%, Raises China Outlook to 4.6%

The International Monetary Fund said in its July 8 update to the World Economic Outlook that it now expects the global economy to grow 3% in 2026, down 0.1 percentage point from its April forecast, citing the impact of fighting in the Middle East, according to Jiemian News. The IMF raised its 2026 China growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6%, saying strong performance in China’s high-tech manufacturing and related exports supported the economy. The report also forecast global inflation at 4.7% this year, up from 4.1% last year, and said global trade volume growth is expected to slow to 3.5% from 5%.