Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of outperformance against traditional assets after breaking out of its longest-ever stretch of underperformance against the S&P 500 — a 142-day period that ended in early May — according to Mark Connors, former global head of portfolio management at Credit Suisse and current chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions. Speaking in an interview, Connors made a bold call at a moment when Bitcoin is trading near $76,000, ETF outflows have accelerated, and macro sentiment has turned sharply negative. His argument is not that the near-term environment is easy — it clearly isn't — but that Bitcoin has historically absorbed macro shocks earlier and harder than other assets before emerging first on the other side. "I think bitcoin's underperformance versus markets is over," Connors said. "It's in the consolidation phase that has shifted into an outperformance phase." Why bonds and equities face the bigger structural problem Connors' core thesis rests on the view that persistent inflation and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment create a more damaging structural problem for bonds and equities than for Bitcoin. Traditional fixed income, long considered a defensive haven, is under sustained pressure as markets adjust to the reality that rate cuts are no longer the base case — with CME FedWatch now showing nearly 68% odds of rate hikes by December 2026. In that environment, bonds lose value as yields rise, and equity valuations face compression as the discount rate applied to future earnings increases. Bitcoin, by contrast, has no duration risk and no earnings multiple to compress. Its value proposition as a scarce, non-sovereign asset becomes more attractive — not less — as fiat monetary systems face inflation pressure and bond markets struggle. "Bitcoin, as it always does, takes it on the chin early, but then it always comes out first," Connors said, adding that Bitcoin could continue outperforming both equities and fixed income "as we grind through the straits of poor news and oil persistently being high." Oil, inflation, and the technology counterweight Connors tied the current macro environment directly to geopolitical tensions and structurally elevated energy prices — a dynamic that has defined 2026 since the US-Iran conflict began in February and sent oil surging 55%. Rather than viewing high oil as an unambiguous negative, Connors sees it as an accelerant for the technology adoption that ultimately counters inflationary pressure. "The only way to punch through that inflationary pressure is through technology," he said. In his framework, AI and blockchain are becoming increasingly linked as businesses seek decentralized systems capable of supporting machine-driven transactions and automation at scale — a thesis that connects Bitcoin's long-term value proposition directly to the AI growth narrative that has driven equity market outperformance in recent months. This framing echoes the agentic AI payments argument that has gained traction among crypto analysts — the idea that autonomous AI systems will default to crypto rails for payments because they cannot access traditional bank accounts, creating structural demand for Bitcoin and programmable digital assets as AI adoption scales. Gold's run is ending, Bitcoin's resurgence is beginning Connors drew an explicit parallel between the current environment and 2020, when gold initially outperformed in the early stages of the pandemic shock before Bitcoin began a multi-year resurgence that dramatically outpaced every traditional asset class. In his read, the same rotation is underway now. "Gold has had its run," Connors said. "Bitcoin is now on its resurgence." The comparison carries weight given gold's behavior in the current cycle. Gold surged to record highs near $3,500 per ounce earlier in 2026 as geopolitical risk and inflation fears drove safe-haven demand — the same dynamic that initially favored gold in early 2020. If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin's current consolidation near $76,000 is not the beginning of a deeper bear leg but the base-building phase that precedes a sustained outperformance cycle against both gold and equities. The 142-day underperformance streak in context The 142-day stretch of Bitcoin underperformance against the S&P 500 that ended in early May was, according to Connors, the longest in Bitcoin's history. The fact that it ended — rather than extended indefinitely — is itself a signal in his framework. Historically, extended periods of Bitcoin underperformance have been followed by periods of sharp outperformance as the macro conditions that depressed relative performance shift. The current setup combines several of those historical shift conditions simultaneously: a potential Iran peace deal that could deflate the oil premium, a new Fed chair whose rate intentions remain genuinely uncertain, a CLARITY Act advancing through Congress that could unlock institutional capital, and a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill that would formally recognize Bitcoin as a US national asset. None of those catalysts guarantees the outcome Connors is projecting. But together they suggest that the macro and regulatory conditions for Bitcoin's next outperformance cycle are assembling — even if the timing of the move remains uncertain.

Nearly 68% of traders are pricing in an interest rate hike of at least 25 basis points by December 2026, according to CME FedWatch. Bitcoin is trading near $75,800 after breaking critical support. Consumer sentiment just hit a record low. By every conventional measure, the Federal Reserve under new chairman Kevin Warsh appears locked into a tightening path. But author, Bitcoin investor, and market analyst Lawrence Lepard is making the opposite case — and his argument deserves serious attention precisely because it runs so directly against the current consensus. Lepard's thesis: Warsh will cut, not hike Lepard argued that signals from other senior US economic officials point toward rate cuts rather than hikes under Warsh. He specifically cited Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as having made comments consistent with a rate-cutting trajectory in 2026. His framework for how Warsh gets there: "Warsh will cut. He will use the AI productivity and trimmed inflation excuses and will claim that all the war inflation is transitory." In Lepard's read, Warsh will frame the inflation generated by the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz oil disruption as temporary and supply-side in nature — the kind of inflation that passes on its own without requiring monetary tightening — while pointing to AI-driven productivity gains as a structural disinflationary force that justifies easier policy. That framing has historical precedent. The Fed used "transitory" language extensively during the 2021 to 2022 inflation surge before abandoning it — a decision that cost the central bank significant credibility. Whether Warsh would be willing to revive a similar framework, and whether markets would accept it, is the central question Lepard's thesis raises. Trump's signals reinforce the rate cut narrative At Warsh's swearing-in ceremony on Friday, President Trump said the US would tackle its rising national debt through "growth" — language that signals a preference for an expansionary monetary environment and lower interest rates. Trump also said "we want to stop inflation, but we don't want to stop greatness" — a statement met with skepticism from investors and economists who noted the tension between fighting inflation and pursuing growth simultaneously. Trump's track record of publicly pressuring the Fed on rates — he repeatedly called on outgoing chair Jerome Powell to cut rates and said he would be disappointed if Warsh didn't move immediately to ease policy — provides additional context for Lepard's argument. The question is not whether Trump wants rate cuts. It is whether Warsh will prioritize White House preferences over the inflation data that currently makes cuts extremely difficult to justify on conventional monetary policy grounds. The consensus: 68% probability of rate hikes The market consensus sits firmly in the opposite direction. CME FedWatch shows nearly 68% of traders pricing in a rate hike of 25 basis points or more by December 2026 — a dramatic shift from February's 96% rate cut expectations. The move reflects the cumulative impact of back-to-back hot CPI and PPI readings, oil above $100 per barrel, record-low consumer sentiment of 44.8, and rising long-term inflation expectations of 3.9% on the UMich 5-year measure. In April, US lawmakers scrutinized Warsh's commitment to preserving Federal Reserve independence at his Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing, with Senator Elizabeth Warren raising potential conflicts of interest around Trump family crypto businesses and the new Fed chair's own investments in AI and digital asset companies. What a rate cut would mean for Bitcoin and crypto The stakes for crypto markets are significant. If Lepard is correct and Warsh pivots toward cuts — or even signals a more dovish posture than markets are currently pricing — the impact on Bitcoin and risk assets could be rapid and substantial. Rate cut expectations were the primary macro tailwind driving Bitcoin's recovery from $60,000 to $83,000 between February and May. The reversal of that expectation — from cuts to hikes — has been the primary macro headwind driving the retreat back toward $74,000 to $76,000. A credible dovish signal from Warsh, even short of an actual rate cut, could reverse months of ETF outflow pressure, ease the options market hedging demand that has kept downside protection expensive, and restore the institutional risk appetite that briefly pushed Bitcoin toward a breakout above its 200-day moving average. Conversely, if the consensus is correct and Warsh raises rates — or simply maintains the current restrictive stance while markets wait for clarity — Bitcoin and crypto stocks could face what some analysts have described as several months of declining asset prices as uncertainty over the rate path continues to weigh on positioning. The bottom line Lepard's contrarian view — that Warsh will ultimately cut rates by framing conflict-driven inflation as transitory and leaning on AI productivity as cover — is a minority position against a strong consensus. But it is not an implausible one. The White House's clear preference for lower rates, combined with the geopolitical de-escalation now potentially underway through the Iran peace deal negotiations, could give Warsh the political and economic justification he needs to move toward easing faster than markets currently expect. How Warsh communicates in his first public appearances as Fed chair — and whether he distances himself from or aligns with the rate-cutting expectations Trump has signaled — will be the most important variable for Bitcoin and crypto markets in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin is trading around $75,800 — down nearly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 — after breaking below a crucial support zone between $75,000 and $76,000 on Friday. The breakdown has prompted a fresh wave of bearish price targets from analysts, with some warning a revisit of the February $60,000 low is now on the table, while others argue long-term holder behavior and historical bull market indicators make a collapse of that magnitude unlikely. Van de Poppe: $60,000 possible if $76,600 doesn't reclaim Crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged Friday's break below the $75,000 to $76,000 support zone as a significant technical development, while noting that market corrections occurring on Fridays "flip back bullish quite often" — leaving the door open for a recovery before the weekly close. Van de Poppe pointed to multiple CME Bitcoin futures gaps above the current spot price, the highest of which sits above $79,000, as a reason the market may still grind higher in the near term. But he drew a clear line in the sand: "If Bitcoin doesn't grind back upwards to $76,600 or more, then there's clearly no argument to assume that we are going to get into new highs and just remain within this range." The implication is straightforward. A failure to reclaim $76,600 removes the case for new highs and opens the path toward the $60,000 level — revisiting the February low that marked the deepest drawdown of the current cycle. Polymarket: 51% odds of Bitcoin hitting $55,000 in 2026 Prediction markets are reflecting the growing bearish consensus. Polymarket currently gives a 51% probability that Bitcoin hits $55,000 at some point in 2026, while odds of a drop to $45,000 sit at 31%. Earlier in May, Polymarket was pricing a 65% chance of Bitcoin falling to $75,000 — a level that has now been broken, validating the downside scenarios the market had been pricing. The macro backdrop reinforces the bearish case. Newly appointed Fed chairman Kevin Warsh inherited a stagflationary environment on day one — record-low consumer sentiment at 44.8, rising long-term inflation expectations, and rate hike odds above 70% for year-end. Bitcoin's bear market is now entering its seventh month, and the inability to reclaim the 200-day moving average at $83,000 has kept the technical picture firmly bearish on higher timeframes. TradingView data shows Bitcoin continues to trade well below its 365-day and 200-day exponential moving averages — both dynamic resistance levels — and closed below the 50-day EMA on Friday, adding another layer of technical deterioration to the price structure. The bull case: long-term holders and historical precedent Not all analysts share the bearish outlook. Two separate data points push back against the $60,000 revisit scenario. First, on-chain data shows that approximately 71% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held by long-term holders — a cohort that has historically absorbed selling pressure rather than contributing to it. The concentration of supply in strong hands reduces the available float for sellers to drive prices dramatically lower, making a sustained break below $60,000 structurally difficult even in a weak macro environment. Second, trader and analyst Matthew Hyland pointed to the 90-day uptrend that followed February's $60,000 low as historically unprecedented in bear market conditions. "There has never been a rally that trended upward for 89 days ever in a bear market in BTC history," Hyland said, adding that the break of high timeframe resistance that accompanied that rally "has also marked the start of a bull market rally the prior three times." If that historical pattern holds, the current pullback is a correction within an ongoing bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear leg. K33 Research has also maintained that February's $60,000 low represents the maximum drawdown of the current cycle, citing 81 consecutive days of negative funding rates as evidence that the kind of leverage buildup that preceded prior bear market collapses has not occurred in this cycle. The key level: $76,600 With Bitcoin recovering toward $76,800 following Trump's Iran peace deal announcement on Saturday, the immediate focus returns to van de Poppe's line in the sand at $76,600. Reclaiming and holding that level would stabilize the technical picture and reopen the case for a recovery toward the CME gap above $79,000. Failing to do so heading into the new week would validate the bearish scenario and bring the $71,000 to $73,000 support zone — and ultimately the $60,000 level — into realistic range. The Iran deal progress, the ARMA strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, and the CLARITY Act's continued legislative momentum provide potential positive catalysts. But until the macro headwinds from inflation, Fed rate hike odds, and bond market stress show concrete signs of reversing, the weight of technical and flow evidence continues to favor caution over conviction.

Bitcoin has staged a sharp recovery from five-week lows after President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran has been largely negotiated — with the deal including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil chokepoint whose closure has been one of the primary drivers of elevated energy prices and crypto market weakness throughout the three-month conflict. Crypto markets recovered approximately $75 billion in total capitalization following the announcement, with Bitcoin bouncing from a Saturday low of $74,250 on Coinbase to tap the 50-day exponential moving average at $77,000 in early Sunday trading before settling back to around $76,800 at the time of writing. What Trump announced Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday afternoon that an agreement has been "largely negotiated" among the United States, Iran, and a broad coalition of Middle Eastern nations including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain. "An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other countries, as listed," Trump wrote. "Final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India on Saturday, reiterated the core US demands that form the basis of the deal. "Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The straits need to be open without tolls. They need to turn over their enriched uranium," Rubio said. Oil pulls back but remains elevated Oil markets responded immediately to the de-escalation signal. WTI crude dropped to $96 per barrel and Brent fell to $103 — meaningful declines from the $108 to $112 levels seen earlier in the week. However, both benchmarks remain approximately 55% above their pre-conflict levels from late February, reflecting how much geopolitical risk premium has been built into energy prices over the three months of conflict. The Strait of Hormuz's closure and the uncertainty surrounding it has been one of the primary inflation inputs pressuring the Federal Reserve into a hawkish posture throughout May. Fundstrat's Tom Lee explicitly identified rising oil prices as the largest headwind for Ether and a key drag on the broader crypto market. A sustained reopening of the Strait — if the deal finalizes — would remove that pressure and potentially reverse the inflation re-acceleration narrative that has driven rate hike odds above 70% for year-end. Context: three months of conflict and its market toll The conflict began on February 28 when a US airstrike killed Iran's Supreme Leader, triggering a sequence of events that sent oil surging 55%, pushed US 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, flipped Federal Reserve rate expectations from cuts to hikes, and contributed to Bitcoin falling 39% from its October all-time high of $126,080. Despite that backdrop, Bitcoin has actually outperformed the S&P 500 and gold since the conflict began — rising approximately 29% from the February lows near $60,000 to current levels around $76,800, even after the recent pullback from the May high of $83,000. The ceasefire negotiations have been fragile throughout, with multiple failed attempts since early April. Saturday's announcement from Trump represents the most concrete progress toward a formal agreement yet — though the language of "largely negotiated" and "subject to finalization" signals the deal is not yet complete. What a finalized deal could mean for crypto A confirmed and durable Iran peace agreement would remove the single largest geopolitical risk premium embedded in global markets and potentially trigger a significant repricing across risk assets. Lower oil would reduce inflation pressure, ease the case for Fed rate hikes, compress Treasury yields, and restore the risk-on conditions that drove Bitcoin's rally from $60,000 to $83,000 between February and early May. The ARMA strategic Bitcoin reserve bill introduced in Congress on Friday, combined with the CLARITY Act advancing through the Senate, and a potential Iran deal resolution could create the legislative and geopolitical backdrop for a renewed institutional inflow cycle into Bitcoin ETFs — reversing the $1.26 billion in six-day outflows that preceded Saturday's announcement. For now, the $77,000 level — Bitcoin's approximate opening price for May — remains the key short-term level to reclaim and hold. A confirmed peace deal and sustained oil price decline could provide the catalyst needed to close the month above that level and preserve the three-consecutive-months-in-the-green streak that Tom Lee identified as a bull market confirmation signal.

Shiba Inu, which gained significant attention in 2021 partly due to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin burning 90% of the SHIB tokens he received, has seen a substantial decline in value. According to NS3.AI, the cryptocurrency reached a peak price of $0.00008616 in October 2021. However, data from CoinGecko indicates that Shiba Inu's value has since plummeted by more than 93% from that peak.

「金色週刊」は、金色財経が提供するブロックチェーン業界の週間まとめコーナーであり、その内容は、その週の主要ニュース、マイニング業界の情報、プロジェクトの動向、技術の進展など、業界の最新動向を網羅しています。

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「金色週刊」は、金色財経が提供するブロックチェーン業界の週間まとめコーナーであり、その内容は、その週の主要ニュース、相場・先物データ、マイニング関連情報、プロジェクトの動向、技術の進展など、業界の最新動向を網羅しています。

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