Key Takeaways Nearly 35 million XRP were withdrawn from exchanges in 24 hours -- the sixth-largest daily outflow of 2026 -- reducing immediately available sell-side supply, per SantimentSimilar outflow spikes preceded a 20% XRP rally in March and a 48–50% surge in February, strengthening the case for a May price moveUS spot XRP ETFs recorded three consecutive weeks of net inflows totaling $82.88 million, pushing total AUM to $1.1 billion, per SoSoValueXRP whale flows have turned positive for the first time since early 2026, with the 90-day moving average crossing back above zero, per CryptoQuantA falling wedge technical setup targets the $1.87–$1.89 zone -- approximately 30% above current levels -- by June, aligning with the 50-week EMA and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement XRP is flashing a convergence of bullish on-chain, institutional, and technical signals that analysts say could drive a 30% price rally by June, with exchange outflows, whale accumulation, and ETF inflows all pointing in the same direction as the asset attempts to break out of a two-year falling wedge structure. Exchange Outflows Hit Sixth-Largest Day of 2026 As of Saturday, the XRP Ledger recorded nearly 35 million XRP in exchange outflows over the prior 24 hours -- the sixth-largest daily outflow of 2026 -- according to Santiment data. Large exchange outflows typically indicate investors are moving tokens into private wallets or cold storage, tightening the supply of XRP immediately available for sale on exchanges. The historical precedent for this signal is encouraging. A similar outflow spike in March preceded a roughly 20% XRP price rebound. February's outflow surge was followed by an even stronger move, with XRP gaining approximately 48–50% in the subsequent period. If the pattern holds, the latest withdrawal spike raises the probability of a meaningful price move in May. ETF Demand Signals Institutional Appetite Institutional interest in XRP is also building through regulated products. US-listed spot XRP ETFs have posted three consecutive weeks of net inflows totaling approximately $82.88 million as of Saturday, per SoSoValue data, pushing total assets under management to $1.1 billion. The sustained inflow streak reflects growing institutional appetite for XRP exposure through compliant, regulated vehicles -- a dynamic that adds a structural demand floor beneath the current price. Whales Shift to Accumulation On-chain whale flow data from CryptoQuant adds further weight to the bullish case. The 90-day moving average of XRP Ledger whale flows has crossed back above zero after spending much of early 2026 in negative territory -- a shift from distribution to accumulation among the largest market participants. Historically, positive whale flow regimes have preceded stronger XRP price trends, including the May–July 2025 rally that marked one of XRP's strongest multi-month periods in recent memory. Wedge Setup Targets 30% Upside by June From a technical standpoint, XRP has spent the past two years inside a falling wedge defined by two downward-sloping converging trend lines. April's rebound from the wedge's lower trend line support raises the probability of a move toward the upper boundary -- a target zone aligning with the 50-week EMA and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $1.87–$1.89, approximately 30% above current levels, with June as the potential timeframe. The downside scenario carries equal clarity. A decisive break below the wedge's lower trend line would invalidate the bullish setup and shift the target to the $0.98 level, aligning with the wedge's apex and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement -- a decline of approximately 40% from current prices.

DeepSeek is reportedly opening a new round of financing due to significant talent loss, according to ChainCatcher. Several key researchers have left the company to join major firms such as ByteDance, Tencent, Xiaomi, and autonomous driving company Yuanrong Qixing. This development comes as competitors Zhizhi Technology and MiniMax have recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while another rival, Dark Side of the Moon, has completed three rounds of financing in the first quarter of this year, quadrupling its valuation since the end of last year.

Lending protocol Purrlend has experienced a security breach resulting in a loss of approximately $1.52 million. According to ChainCatcher, the attack targeted the MegaETH and HyperEVM networks. The attacker extracted around $1.2 million from the HyperEVM network, including 449,683 USDC, 214,125 USDT, 194,745 USDH, and some UBTC, wstHYPE, UETH, kHYPE, and WHYPE. Additionally, approximately $324,000 was taken from the MegaETH network, involving assets such as USDT, WETH, and USDm. In response to the incident, Purrlend has suspended its protocol and initiated an investigation. The attacker's address has been identified on block explorers for both networks.

Key Takeaways Bitcoin is trading below the 21-week exponential moving average at $78,400, a level that has acted as resistance since October 2025Analyst Rekt Capital warns continued rejection at the 21-week EMA could force a retest of the Double Bottom breakout level near $73,000Trader Killa sees a "strong chance" of a $73,000 revisit and argues even a close above $80,000 may not prevent new macro lows below $60,000A bearish May scenario is flagged, with any early-month strength potentially marking a pivot high before a deeper correctionBitcoin remains on track for its best monthly close since November 2024, but the weekly trend line is keeping bulls in check heading into the weekend Bitcoin is facing a critical test heading into the weekend, with the 21-week exponential moving average sitting at $78,400 continuing to reject price attempts higher -- a level that has capped upside since October 2025 and is increasingly in focus as traders debate whether April's strong monthly gains can survive into May.   BTC/USD has traded below the 21-week EMA for the entirety of the current bear market cycle. Despite a strong April recovery that has taken Bitcoin from lows near $60,000 to the high $70,000s, bulls have so far failed to reclaim the moving average as support -- a prerequisite, analysts say, for confirming a genuine trend reversal. Rekt Capital: $73,000 Retest on the Table Trader and analyst Rekt Capital laid out the bear case clearly in an X post on Friday. "Bitcoin continues to resist from the 21-week EMA," he wrote, warning that without a decisive reclaim of the level as support, the moving average "could indeed force BTC into a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom price broke out from last week." The Double Bottom structure, which Bitcoin broke out from in the prior week, has its top boundary near the $73,000 area -- making that level the primary downside target in a rejection scenario. The 21-week EMA also forms one side of Bitcoin's bull market support band, a technical zone that historically separates bull and bear market regimes on the weekly chart. Sub-$60,000 Still on the Table Trader Killa, who has maintained a bearish outlook on Bitcoin through the April recovery, went further, arguing that even a monthly close above $80,000 may not be sufficient to prevent a deeper macro correction. "With the monthly close next week, volatility and fakeouts are likely. If May opens strong and pushes higher early in the month, there's a good chance that move could mark the pivot high before a bearish May follows," Killa wrote on X Friday. "Either way, a close above resistance does not always mean true acceptance. In a broader macro downtrend, breaks above key levels can often be used to trap late positions." Killa flagged a "strong chance" of price revisiting $73,000 and kept sub-$60,000 in play as a broader macro downside target -- a scenario that would represent a full retracement of April's gains and a retest of February cycle lows. Bulls Still Have a Case The bearish technical read sits in tension with April's fundamental backdrop. Bitcoin is on track for its best monthly performance since November 2024, up approximately 14.3% month-to-date. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows totaling $2.12 billion. Exchange BTC balances sit at multiyear lows, and the Bull Score Index has entered neutral territory for the first time in the current bear cycle. The monthly close, now one week away, will be the decisive data point. A weekly and monthly close above the 21-week EMA at $78,400 would shift the technical picture materially. Failure to hold above it keeps the $73,000 retest scenario firmly in play heading into what could be a volatile May.

貸付プロトコル「Purrlend」がMegaETHおよびHyperEVMネットワーク上で攻撃を受け、約152万米ドルの損害が発生した。攻撃者はHyperEVMネットワークから、449,683 USDC、214,125 USDT0、194,745 USDH、および一部のUBTC、wstHYPE、UETH、kHYPE、WHYPEを含む、約120万ドル相当の資産を流出させた。また、攻撃者はMegaETHネットワークから約32万4000ドルの資産を引き出しており、これにはUSDT0、WETH、USDmが含まれています。現在、Purrlendはプロトコルの運用を一時停止し、調査を開始しており、攻撃者のアドレスは両ネットワークのブロックチェーンエクスプローラー上で特定されています。

仮想通貨プロジェクトが特定のビジネスモデルの特徴を備えている場合、現在国内で仮想通貨の投機取引に対する取り締まりが強化されている政策動向を踏まえると、マルチ商法組織・指導罪として認定されるという重大な刑事上のリスクが存在する。

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has accused Nancy Pelosi of engaging in insider trading, citing a reported 17,000% return on her portfolio since 1987 as implausible without access to nonpublic information. According to NS3.AI, this accusation comes amid bipartisan efforts to introduce legislation that would mandate lawmakers and their immediate family members to divest from individual stock holdings within 180 days.

PANews posted on X (formerly Twitter). Drift Protocol's product lead, Minh Don, announced on the official Discord channel that the team is working on optimizing the codebase by removing and adding minor yet impactful features. The relaunch of the forked exchange is planned for May or June this year. Previously, Drift Protocol suffered losses exceeding $285 million due to an attack.

Arkhamのデータによると、zkPassチームのマルチシグアドレス（0xEF1）は、過去30分間にわたり、合計10,000,000 ZKP（約79.61万米ドル相当）をバイナンスへ送金した。現在、ZKPの流通供給量は2億6800万枚であり、今回の配布量は流通総量の約3.73%を占める。ZKPの現在の価格は0.07964米ドルで、過去24時間の下落率は7.35%、時価総額は現在2137万米ドルとなっている。

1. 付鵬氏：ビットコインの永久先物契約の本質は、大口投資家がポジションを保有して収益を得、個人投資家がレバレッジをかけて買いポジションを構築し、その対価を支払うことにある；2. 米メディア：イランは米国との交渉に前向きな姿勢を示しているが、ウラン濃縮の権利は堅持する；3. ブラジル、KalshiやPolymarketなど27の予測市場プラットフォームを禁止；4. 2人の大口投資家がバイナンスから計467万ドル相当のLINKを引き出し；5. ゼレンスキー氏：ロシア側が準備を整えれば、ウクライナはアゼルバイジャンでのウクライナ・ロシア和平交渉に同意する；6. 研究者が15桁のECC鍵を解読し、1ビットコインの報酬を獲得；7. FFチームのアドレスから新ウォレットへ1300万ドル相当のトークンが移動；8. a16z：ステーブルコインは取引ツールから中核的な金融インフラへと進化しており、第1四半期の取引高は4.5兆ドルに達した；9. あるクジラがブレント原油に5倍のレバレッジをかけてロングポジションを保有、現在のポジション価値は2000万ドルに達する；10. 分析：SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropicの上場による資金調達活動が、BTCおよび暗号資産市場の流動性に打撃を与える可能性がある。

新火グループのチーフエコノミストである付鵬氏は、Xプラットフォームへの投稿で、ビットコインの永久先物契約の基盤となるビジネスモデルは、伝統的な金融における金や工業製品の現物取引所でのロールオーバー手数料やオーバーナイト手数料と本質的に同じであると述べた。付鵬氏は、かつて金取引所が毎日の強制決済を通じてロング・ショート双方にロールオーバー手数料を支払わせていたことを指摘し、個人投資家がハイレバレッジのロングポジションを保有している場合、このロールオーバー手数料がプラットフォームにとって安定した収入源になると指摘した。現在、ビットコインプラットフォームは8時間ごとの永久先物契約の資金手数料の決済に依存しており、ロングポジションが優勢な場合、個人投資家はショートポジション保有者に対して継続的に手数料を支払っている。プラットフォームは直接この手数料を徴収しないものの、これを通じて取引の活発さ、未決済残高、流動性を高め、間接的に多額の手数料を獲得している。このモデルは本質的に、大口投資家や機関投資家が長期保有で収益を得、個人投資家がレバレッジをかけたロングポジションで手数料を支払い、プラットフォームが間接的に利益を得るビジネスモデルである。

ステーブルコインは取引ツールから汎用的な決済インフラへと進化しつつあり、その過程は多くの人が予想していたよりも静かで、かつ徹底的なものとなっている。

米イラン間の停戦が再び延長、BTC現物ETFは6日連続で資金流入。

数々の新しいモデルをご紹介したところで、今日の記事では、AI業界のリリースサイクルが生み出す「非現実的」な現象についてお話ししたいと思います。

今日のテーマは、何がプロトコルに反脆弱性をもたらすのか、そしてトークンがどのようにエコシステムを動かすためのてことして機能するのかについてです。

NVIDIAの時価総額は5兆ドルの大台を堅守し、世界最高時価総額企業の座を確固たるものにしている。

米国、イラン、ステーブルコイン、米国がイランの暗号資産3億4400万ドルを凍結　金色財経、米国が再びイランに手を下した。

すでに一部の機関が、ディスカウント価格での即時ロックアップ解除を選択したことを公表している。同プロジェクトはまもなく、一度限りの巨額のロックアップ解除に伴う売り圧力の試練に直面することになる。AI分野の爆発的な成長に追随できるかどうか、今回の試練が極めて重要となる。

暗号資産市場、暗号資産、相場、楊海坡著『暗号資産の終局』への反論　金色財経、これこそが暗号資産にとって真の試練なのかもしれない。

ワールドカップを前に、暗号資産業界における「世界的な波」は予測市場に必ず現れるだろうが、これを「巨大な波が押し寄せる始まり」ではなく、「撤退の好機」と捉えるのが賢明だ。