CLARITY Act Year-End Passage Probability Falls to 15.5% as Two Whale Traders Hold Yes Positions

On September 8, TradingBeats monitoring showed that the implied probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year fell to 15.5%. According to BlockBeats On-chain Detection, only two cross-market whales who have remained active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid still hold previously established Yes positions and have not exited as odds declined. TwoEyes and Geminae.Columbae together hold about 254,600 Yes shares, with a position value of about $39,500 and an unrealized loss of about $11,800. Their average entry costs both correspond to roughly a 20% probability of passage, while market pricing has already moved well below their entry levels. TwoEyes holds about 195,500 Yes shares, with an average cost implying a 20.2% probability and an unrealized loss of about $9,197. Geminae.Columbae holds about 59,200 shares, with a cost implying a 19.94% probability and an unrealized loss of about $2,628. Both traders still maintain sizable crypto exposure on the other side. Hyperliquid data showed their combined notional long crypto positions at about $19.92 million. TwoEyes holds about $1.606 million in BTC longs and also has about $348,000 in crude oil shorts. Geminae.Columbae holds BTC, ZEC, LINK, and HYPE longs totaling about $18.317 million.