According to Sky News, Trump stated that most of the key points of Iran's plans have been fully agreed upon. (Jinshi)

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Polymarket's "Trump announcing the end of military action against Iran before April 30" surged to 78% at one point, and is currently at 61%, a 30% increase in 24 hours. The total trading volume for the "When will Trump announce the end of military action against Iran?" event contract has now exceeded $15.669 million. The rules of this event contract are: if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announces that the military action against Iran launched on February 28, 2026, has ended by a specified date (Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will mark it as "no." A valid statement must clearly indicate that the action has ended. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information are not eligible. Public written statements by Trump (e.g., posts on his personal "Truth Social" account) are considered valid statements, as are videos posted on Trump's social media accounts. The market's primary basis for judgment is the official statement of the US government and/or its official representatives, but it also considers consensus from other credible reports. Previously, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran and stated that the US would assist in addressing the growing shipping congestion in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump's post on Truth Social did not provide specific details on how the US would help with the strait, nor did it discuss the possibility of Iran continuing to charge tolls for certain vessels passing through the strait. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Three newly created wallets have collectively profited $484,575 by betting on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, raising concerns of potential insider trading. According to Cointelegraph, these wallets were established and funded on Tuesday, with no prior activity before engaging in Polymarket's 'US x Iran ceasefire by April 7' market. Blockchain data shared by Lookonchain on Wednesday revealed the profits for the three wallets amounted to $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450, respectively. The bets were placed with probabilities ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%. The latest trader on Polymarket made their initial trade in the 'US x Iran ceasefire by April 7' market at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, approximately eight and a half hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement on TruthSocial at 10:32 pm UTC. The other two traders placed their first bets at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday. The bets were settled after the U.S. and Iran's Supreme National Security Council agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, although both nations have not ruled out the possibility of further military actions. Prediction markets, which have become a rapidly growing application for cryptocurrency, consistently exceed $10 billion in monthly trading volume. However, these platforms are under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators worldwide due to concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. In January, U.S. lawmakers proposed a bill to prevent government officials from trading on prediction market platforms after a Polymarket user gained over $400,000 from a market concerning Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture by U.S. forces, raising suspicions of insider knowledge. In February, Israeli authorities arrested and charged two individuals for allegedly using confidential information to place bets on Polymarket regarding Israel striking Iran in June 2025. One of the arrested individuals was a member of Israel's military. To combat insider trading, Polymarket and Kalshi have implemented measures to identify and prevent such activities. In February, Kalshi announced the formation of an independent advisory committee and a partnership with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs to detect, investigate, and address market abuse.

Artificial Intelligence, OpenClaw, AI Agent, LLM, DeepSeek: Choosing a Large Model for AI Agents – Intelligence is the Threshold, Emotional Intelligence is the Watershed. Golden Finance provides a practical experience with several mainstream domestic AI models.

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF is poised to begin trading on NYSE Arca on Wednesday, carrying an annual fee of 0.14%. According to NS3.AI, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted an NYSE listing notice that suggests an April 8 launch date. The fund is expected to hold actual bitcoin and will commence with approximately $1 million in seed capital.

Germany's seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders for February increased by 0.9%, falling short of the anticipated 2.00% growth, according to Jin10. The previous month's figures had shown a significant decline of 11.10%, highlighting a recovery in the sector despite not meeting expectations.

Web3 asset data platform RootData has issued a transparency alert on Twitter, highlighting missing information from projects such as Sentism.AI, Fortune, Ultima, Etherex, and Solomon Labs. According to ChainCatcher, RootData is calling on project teams to submit or update their data on the platform to enhance their transparency scores. RootData also plans to continue monitoring and exposing projects that lack essential information. RootData's transparency score is designed to assess the completeness and timeliness of project information, aiming to reflect the level of disclosure. The platform urges project teams to claim their projects immediately. The transparency score ranges from A to F, with lower scores indicating less comprehensive information disclosure and higher risks of misconduct, warranting increased caution from investors.

Ether (ETH) is showing signs of resilience as buying pressure mounts, suggesting a potential 'regime shift' in the market. According to Cointelegraph, analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining the $2,000 support level for a positive trend change. Onchain data indicates a resurgence in demand, with Ether's net taker volume pointing to the formation of a stronger bottom. This metric, which measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets, has remained positive since March 6, reaching $140 million on March 16. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a recent X post that buying pressure is prevailing, with $104 million currently observed. This marks the first instance since the previous bear market where such a shift is evident in Ethereum derivatives. If this dynamic continues and the spot market and ETFs support the move, Ethereum could potentially restart a positive trend. Further reinforcing this outlook is the futures open interest (OI), which represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled or closed. The metric now stands at 6.4 million ETH, nearing its all-time high of 7.8 million ETH reached in July 2025. Darkfost highlighted in another X post that after a decline to 5 million ETH in October, open interest has gradually recovered, indicating that derivatives markets on Ethereum remain highly active. Meanwhile, spot Ether ETF flows have turned positive, with these investment products recording $120 million in net inflows on Monday, the highest since mid-March. This shift points to renewed demand from U.S. investors following a period of outflows, potentially driving ETH prices higher. For Ether to maintain its cautiously bullish stance, it must hold the $1,800-$2,000 support zone, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle converge. Analyst Ted Pillows remarked in a Tuesday X post that as long as the $2,000 support zone holds, Ethereum could experience another upside move. However, losing this level could lead to a new yearly low. The significance of this support is underscored by cost basis distribution, with over 3.5 million ETH acquired around $2,000. Below this, the next defense line is the $1,750-$1,800 demand zone, where investors acquired 1.36 million ETH. A drop below this level could result in a free-fall toward the symmetrical triangle's measured target at $1,460, or 30% below the current price. As Cointelegraph reported, holding the $1,800-$2,000 range would demonstrate strength among bulls, who must push the ETH/USD pair above the $2,400 range high to regain control.

Ethereum's buyer strength is showing signs of resurgence, according to Cointelegraph. According to BlockBeats, on-chain data and derivatives market indicators suggest a positive shift, though analysts caution that maintaining the $2,000 support level is crucial. CryptoQuant data reveals that Ethereum's net taker volume has remained positive since March 6, peaking at $140 million on March 16 and currently standing at $104 million. This metric measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted, "This is the first time since the last bear market that we've observed such a mechanism shift in the Ethereum derivatives market." He added that if this trend continues and the spot market along with ETFs follow suit, Ethereum could resume its upward trajectory. In terms of futures open interest, the current position is 6.4 million ETH, nearing the historical high of 7.8 million ETH set in July 2025, and has gradually increased from the low of 5 million ETH in October last year. Spot Ethereum ETF fund flows also turned positive on Monday, with a net inflow of $120 million, marking the highest single-day inflow since mid-March. On the price front, analyst Ted Pillows stated, "As long as the $2,000 support level holds, Ethereum is poised for another rally; however, if it falls below this level, a new low for the year could follow." Glassnode's cost basis distribution data shows that over 3.5 million ETH have a holding cost concentrated around $2,000. If this area is breached, the next support lies between $1,750 and $1,800, where approximately 1.36 million ETH were accumulated. Should the price fall further below these supports, the measured target of the symmetrical triangle points to $1,460, about 30% lower than the current price.

Hyperscale Data has announced preliminary unaudited consolidated revenue figures for the first quarter ending March 31, 2026. According to Foresight News, the company anticipates consolidated revenue of approximately $43 million to $45 million, marking a 72% to 80% increase compared to the $25 million reported in the first quarter of 2025. The expected revenue growth is primarily attributed to contributions from its subsidiaries, Gresham and Ault Lending. The quarter includes around $10 million in revenue generated by Gresham following its bankruptcy restructuring completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was not accounted for in the previous year's figures. Additionally, Hyperscale Data forecasts that Ault Lending will contribute approximately $10 million in high-margin revenue for the quarter.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has purchased approximately $13 million worth of Robinhood stock. (Cointelegraph)

In his new book, "The Binance Life," Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) records some of his principles and ways of doing things in seven aspects: mindset, team, business and cooperation, communication, product, public relations, and leisure life.

The FDIC has put forward rules for stablecoin issuers, covering reserves, redemptions, capital, and risk management. It confirmed stablecoins will not have deposit insurance and is asking the public for feedback over the next 60 days.

"What's truly terrifying isn't that Mythos could be misused by bad people. It's that Mythos makes us realize for the first time that what we thought was safe was never truly safe in another dimension."

Trump announced a temporary halt to attacks on Iran early this morning, and Iran also declared its acceptance of the ceasefire agreement. Tensions in the Middle East eased, significantly boosting risk appetite. BTC rebounded back to $72,000, giving global markets a brief respite. What's next?

Bitcoin is holding firm near $68,500 as President Donald Trump’s April 7 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz arrives under threats of infrastructure strikes—yet $471 million in ETF inflows suggests markets are positioning for de-escalation, not disaster.

Solana DEX Stabble told users to withdraw their funds after a former employee was linked to North Korea. TVL fell from $1.75 million to under $663,000, though no exploit has been reported.

Encrypted networks were originally designed for human use. Autonomous intelligent systems must replace human understanding and judgment with machine-native equivalent functions.

Anthropic announced the launch of its new project, Project Glasswing, and announced the training of a brand-new, high-performance model, Claude Mythos Preview.

United States, Trump, Iran, oil, a ceasefire, each side's interpretation. Golden Finance: Some preliminary observations on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, for reference only.