Market News | Wall Street Is Unanimous on September and Split on Everything After It

More than a dozen banks expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates 25 basis points on September 16.UBS, HSBC, Barclays, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase have all converged on the call. Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs dropped hold positions to get there.The federal funds target currently sits at 3.50% to 3.75%.The Paths Diverge Immediately AfterConsensus on Wednesday masks substantial disagreement on what follows, and the range is wide enough to matter more than the decision.UBS projects 50 basis points of tightening by year-end. Bank of America sees 75 basis points in 2026. HSBC and Barclays both expect September and December moves. Morgan Stanley forecasts two hikes alongside an ECB move in the near term.Deutsche Bank runs longest, expecting September, December and March 2027.Jefferies sits at the other end, expecting fewer than the roughly 3.5 hikes markets price over the longer term. Global economist Mohit Kumar argued the first move is a credibility matter while subsequent ones depend on how long the war lasts and the trend of oil prices.That spread — from 50 basis points to a cycle extending into 2027 — is what Wednesday's dot plot either resolves or widens. The decision itself is priced. The projections are not.Barclays Shifted After Jackson Hole, Not After CPIThe sequencing of these revisions identifies what actually moved forecasters.Barclays shifted to September and December hikes following Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, weeks before the inflation data arrived.Warsh had said: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do."That warning did the work. August's core CPI at 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus confirmed rather than created the case, and PCE inflation running at 3.7% remains the figure Warsh built his argument around.Oil pushing back above $100 a barrel supplied the second input, with Brent at $105 after Saudi Arabia closed the pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.Pompliano Is the Visible DissentBitcoin investor Anthony Pompliano posted that the Federal Reserve "should NOT raise interest rates," drawing substantial public backing.The position is normative rather than predictive — an argument about what the Fed ought to do rather than what it will. But it identifies the case that has largely disappeared from sell-side coverage.An energy-driven inflation impulse is a supply shock, and tightening into a supply shock constrains demand without addressing the cause. QCP Capital framed the same tension: continued energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive, while economic data weakness caused by those costs would argue for patience.Jefferies' framing of the first hike as a credibility measure implicitly concedes the point. A move justified by credibility is not a move justified by the inflation mechanism.Bitcoin Crossed $79,000 and Gave It BackMore than $100 million in shorts were liquidated in 30 minutes as Bitcoin crossed $79,000, after President Trump suggested the Iran conflict could end.Price has since slipped back to about $77,000.Analysts flag $79,500 to $80,000 as the area where selling pressure should build, and Bitcoin has failed at $80,000 repeatedly this month. Glassnode data explains why: nearly 8% of total supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000 — the largest concentration at any comparable range — with the US spot ETF cohort's average cost basis in the same band.The liquidation pattern this month has run in both directions. An inflation surprise earlier in September triggered $562 million in liquidations, and Monday's move produced $100 million on the short side.Santiment data shows BTC-denominated open contracts fell 13.5% between September 3 and 11 against a 5% price decline, leaving positioning roughly 20% below pre-rally levels. That limits the cascade available Wednesday in either direction.Two Events Land Within 24 HoursThe FOMC begins its two-day meeting September 15, the same day as the Senate's Clarity Act cloture vote, with the rate decision due September 16.The cloture vote requires 60 votes to advance H.R. 3633 to floor debate — a procedural gate rather than passage. A new draft circulating among lawmakers runs over 600 pages, and Democrats have continued to raise concerns about the absent bipartisan ethics agreement.Markets price the September hike at roughly 87% to 93% depending on venue and timing, up from around 60% at the end of August.The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.40%, its highest since June 2007, while the 10-year cleared 5% for the first time since October 2023 — with the long end rising faster than the short end into a decision that only addresses the short end.