Bitcoin’s rally gained momentum this week as spot market demand intensified, pushing prices above $95,000 and reigniting expectations of a move toward the psychologically important $100,000 level. Analysts say the structure of the move — led by direct spot buying rather than leverage — points to a healthier breakout setup.Key takeawaysBitcoin surged past $95,000 as spot buyers took control of market momentumOver $269 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated in 24 hoursAnalysts say a spot-driven rally increases the probability of a $100,000 testRetail FOMO could return if BTC sustains strength near six-figure territorySpot buying drives Bitcoin breakout above $95KBitcoin climbed more than 4.5% over the past 24 hours, trading near $95,200 at the time of writing, as buyers accumulated the asset directly on spot markets.“This rally on Bitcoin is being led by spot buying,” said Will Clemente, noting that demand is coming from investors purchasing the underlying asset rather than speculative derivatives.This distinction is significant. Spot-led rallies typically signal genuine capital inflows, whereas leverage-driven moves often fade quickly once momentum stalls.Short liquidations accelerate upside momentumThe price surge caught bearish traders off guard. According to derivatives data, more than $269 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated as BTC broke through key resistance levels.Liquidations tend to amplify upside moves by forcing traders to buy back positions at market prices, creating a feedback loop that accelerates price appreciation — particularly when spot demand remains strong.Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim the $100,000 level since falling below it in mid-November, making the current structure closely watched by traders.Analysts see clear path toward $100,000Market commentators say Bitcoin’s technical and flow-based signals now favor further upside.MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said the setup points to a continuation higher, arguing that dips are likely to attract buyers rather than sellers.Prediction markets also reflect rising optimism. Data from Polymarket shows traders assigning roughly a 50% probability that Bitcoin retests $100,000 by early February, with smaller odds placed on a move beyond $105,000.Historically, January has delivered modest average returns for Bitcoin, while February has tended to be stronger — a seasonal pattern some traders believe could reinforce bullish expectations.Retail sentiment remains subdued — for nowDespite the rally, broader crypto sentiment has yet to flip decisively bullish. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to hover in fear territory following the October liquidation shock that wiped out billions in leveraged positions.Analytics platform Santiment warned that a sustained push toward $100,000 could quickly shift market psychology.“If Bitcoin starts teasing $100K again, retail FOMO is likely to creep back into the market,” Santiment said, noting that sentiment has remained depressed for more than two months.Why spot flows matter for the next legAnalysts emphasize that the current rally’s spot-led nature reduces the risk of an abrupt reversal. Unlike futures-driven rallies, spot accumulation reflects longer-term positioning and limits the impact of forced deleveraging.If Bitcoin can hold above the $94,500–$95,000 zone — now viewed as key support — traders say the probability of a renewed attempt at $100,000 increases materially.For now, the focus remains on whether spot demand continues to absorb supply without excessive leverage rebuilding beneath the surface.
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