Federal Reserve's Asset Management Strategy May Influence Market Liquidity

According to BlockBeats, despite the market's anticipation of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has driven U.S. stocks close to historical highs, the real catalyst for the bull market in stocks and other risk assets may not be interest rates. The key factor could be how the Federal Reserve manages its substantial balance sheet and whether it injects new liquidity into the market. Last Friday, the global rates strategy team at Bank of America expressed their expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce this week a plan to purchase Treasury bills with maturities of one year or less at a monthly pace of $45 billion starting in January, as part of its "reserve management operations." Others believe that more time might be needed and that the Federal Reserve may not need to take extensive actions to keep the market running smoothly. Roger Hallam, global head of rates at Vanguard Fixed Income Group, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing Treasury bills at a monthly rate of $15 billion to $20 billion by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter next year. Kelly from PineBridge expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, bringing the policy rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, moving closer to the historical neutral rate of around 3% aimed at maintaining economic stability.