Matrixport: Gold–Bitcoin Price Divergence Likely to Persist as Rate-Cut Expectations Rise

Gold and Bitcoin are likely to continue moving in opposite directions in the short term, according to a new analysis published Friday by digital-asset services firm Matrixport.The firm highlighted data from federal funds futures, showing that markets now assign an 84% probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut on Dec. 10, sharply higher than last week’s expectations. Meanwhile, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in January has also climbed to 65%, suggesting that investors expect only limited monetary easing in the near term.Gold reacts to fiscal signals; Bitcoin depends on fresh liquidityMatrixport noted that gold’s price movements are more tightly correlated with:the U.S. fiscal deficitthe pace of Treasury issuanceand expectations of fiscal expansionThis makes gold a more direct hedge when markets anticipate rate cuts or government spending increases.Bitcoin, by contrast, is more dependent on new liquidity entering the system, particularly from institutional or risk-on capital flows. Matrixport argued that liquidity conditions remain tight, even with rising expectations of a December rate cut — which helps explain why Bitcoin has not rallied alongside gold.Short-term outlook: divergence to persistWith the macro environment still restrictive and no clear signs of fresh capital inflows into crypto, Matrixport concluded that the divergence between gold and Bitcoin price trends is expected to persist in the short term.Gold has recently strengthened on fiscal concerns, while Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure amid ETF outflows, elevated volatility, and cautious sentiment surrounding U.S. monetary policy.