The US October producer price index (PPI) is due today, November 13, at 13:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET). It arrives as bitcoin has fallen below $70,000, the US dollar has climbed to its highest level since April 2025 and 10-year Treasury yields have risen above 5%.The PPI is the last major inflation report before the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 meeting, where markets expect a rate hike. Traders will be watching whether it supports a quarter-point move or a larger half-point one.What Economists ExpectMeasureSeptember (actual)October (forecast)Headline PPI, month over month+1.3%+0.4%Headline PPI, year over year6.3%6.6%Core PPI, month over month+0.7%+0.3%Core PPI, year over year5.0%—Source: Dow Jones consensusMonthly producer price growth is expected to slow sharply from September, when energy prices jumped 10.8% and drove about half of the rise. Even so, the annual rate is forecast to climb to 6.6%, its highest since 2022, because of a base effect: prices barely rose in October 2025, so a moderate increase this October lifts the yearly figure.Why PPI Matters to the FedProducer prices measure what businesses receive for goods and services, and they feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index. Economists estimate October core PCE rose about 0.4%, and today’s PPI could change that estimate.The data follows a hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, when headline CPI rose 0.4% and core CPI 0.3%. That core reading met the threshold Fed Governor Christopher Waller set for considering a 50 basis point hike. CME FedWatch showed about a 90% chance of a quarter-point December hike as of November 11, with the rest on a larger move.Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000Bitcoin fell to around $69,000 early Friday, down more than 6% in 24 hours, after touching a low of $67,922, according to CoinGecko data. That breaks the $72,000–$73,200 support zone near its 200-day moving average that analysts were watching earlier this week. Ether fell 5.2% to about $1,942 and BNB fell 5.9% to around $634.More than $1.3 billion in crypto futures positions were liquidated over 24 hours, mostly bets on rising prices, according to CoinGlass data. About $677 million of that was in bitcoin.ETF outflows have added to the pressure. BlackRock’s IBIT has lost more than $2 billion over nine straight sessions, and all US spot bitcoin ETFs together have lost about $1.44 billion over five sessions. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 20, “extreme fear,” its lowest since July 8.Dollar and Yields ClimbThe Dollar Index rose above 103, its highest since April 2025, according to CoinDesk, up from about 102 on Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 5%, according to 10x Research, from 4.86% a week ago.A stronger dollar and higher yields tend to weigh on bitcoin. Higher yields make cash and bonds more attractive compared with assets that pay no income, and a rising dollar typically tightens global financial conditions. Both moves reflect expectations that the Fed will keep raising rates.How Markets Could ReactThese are typical market reactions, not forecasts:Hotter than forecast: a headline above 0.4% or core above 0.3% could strengthen bets on a 50 basis point hike, push the dollar and yields higher, and add pressure on bitcoin and tech stocks.In line: a quarter-point December hike stays the base case, and attention shifts to core PCE data and whether stock markets steady.Cooler than forecast: a softer reading could trim bets on a larger hike and ease the dollar, giving risk assets some relief after a heavy week.
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