Polymarket Odds Show 81% Chance Fed Holds Rates at July FOMC Meeting

Polymarket data showed the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the July policy meeting fell to 18.1%, while the odds of no change rose to 81%, with total trading volume at $21.74 million. According to Odaily, market expectations broadly point to the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28 to 29. The report said U.S. May CPI rose 4.2% year over year, and energy prices climbed sharply amid developments in the Middle East, indicating inflation pressures remain. It added that after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June meeting, markets have leaned toward waiting for more economic data before assessing the next policy path. Odaily said key variables for the July decision include the U.S. June CPI data due on July 14, along with major indicators such as employment and wages.