10x Research 在 X 平台发文表示，尽管比特币下跌 46%，但比特币 ETF 仅录得 85 亿美元的净流出。根据最新的 2025 年第四季度 13F 文件，IBIT 610 亿美元资产中估计有 55%-75%由做市商和专注于套利的对冲基金持有，其头寸大多为对冲或市场中性，而非表达方向性观点。在 2025 年第四季度，随着比特币在 88000 美元附近盘整，做市商减少了约 16 亿至 24 亿美元的风险敞口，反映了投机需求的下降和套利库存需求的减少。

Japanese stocks experienced a rebound following a four-day losing streak. According to RTHK, the Nikkei Index rose by as much as 1.5%, reaching a high of 57,392 points. It closed at 57,143 points, marking an increase of 577 points or 1.02%.

Battery Ventures, a global investment firm, has successfully raised $3.25 billion to support new technology deals. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the firm's focus on investing in innovative tech companies. This substantial funding will enable Battery Ventures to expand its portfolio and capitalize on emerging opportunities within the technology sector. The firm aims to leverage its resources to drive growth and innovation in various tech industries, positioning itself as a key player in the market. Battery Ventures' strategic approach to investment underscores its commitment to fostering technological advancements and supporting promising ventures.

Renowned analyst Willy Woo has indicated that the bear market trend for Bitcoin is still ongoing. According to Odaily, Woo outlines the bear market in three distinct phases. The first phase marks the onset, where Bitcoin's liquidity collapses, a situation that occurred in the third quarter of 2025, leading to a price decline. As a small-scale asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity changes, often leading the global macroeconomic market into a bear phase months in advance. During this stage, die-hard bulls may claim it's a market correction within a bull run, but they lack concrete evidence of capital inflow, resorting to storytelling instead. The second phase involves the global stock market entering a bear market. This massive $100 trillion entity moves slowly, akin to a giant supertanker. This represents the mid-stage of Bitcoin's bear market, where all risk assets are declining, confirming the bear market status. The third phase is when the first signs of recovery appear. Liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and stabilize, and investors start returning. The final price drop typically occurs in this phase, either just before or shortly after the peak of capital outflows. Currently, within this bear market framework, Bitcoin is in the first phase and is about to transition into the second phase.

Japan's 221st Special Diet session commenced today, marking a significant political event following the recent House of Representatives election. According to Ming Pao, Sanae Takaichi, the 64-year-old president of the Liberal Democratic Party, was elected as the 105th Prime Minister during the House of Representatives plenary session.

Glencore has announced a decrease in its full-year profit, attributing the decline to reduced earnings from its coal operations despite record copper prices. Bloomberg posted on X that the company's financial performance was impacted by the downturn in coal, which could not be balanced by the gains in copper. The mining giant's results highlight the challenges faced in its coal sector, which have overshadowed the benefits of high copper prices. The report underscores the volatility in the commodities market and the difficulties in maintaining profitability across different sectors.

A recent poll indicates that public support for U.S. President Donald Trump's immigration policy has reached its lowest point. According to Jin10, this development comes as Tricia McLaughlin, the Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs at the Department of Homeland Security, announced her resignation on February 17. The decline in support reflects growing dissatisfaction among Americans with the current administration's approach to immigration.

知名分析师 Willy Woo 表示，我要给那些永远看涨牛市的人带来坏消息，比特币的熊市趋势仍在持续，且应当分为三个阶段：第一阶段——开端，此时比特币流动性已经崩溃，这种情况已在 2025 年第三季度发生，价格开始下跌。比特币作为小规模资产对流动性极其敏感。正因如此它往往会引领全球宏观经济进入熊市，而且通常提前数月。换句话说，当精明资金撤离时，比特币会迅速做出反应。在这个阶段，那些死忠多头会盲目地声称这是牛市内部的回调，但他们拿不出任何资金流入的确凿证据，只会编造故事。第二阶段——全球股市转为熊市，这是一个规模高达 100 万亿美元的庞然大物，就像一艘巨型超级油轮——移动缓慢。这是比特币熊市的中期阶段，所有风险资产都在下跌，毫无疑问，我们正处于熊市之中。第三阶段——曙光初现。在此阶段，流动性开始好转，资本外流达到峰值并趋于稳定。投资者正在回归。最终的价格暴跌通常发生在此阶段，可能在资本外流峰值之前或之后不久。在当前的熊市框架下，比特币目前处于第一阶段，即将进入第二阶段。

According to data shared by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s correction is increasingly affecting long-term holders (LTHs), with on-chain metrics showing a notable shift in behavior. Bitcoin continues to trade more than 45% below its previous all-time high, and recent data suggests that even historically resilient investors are beginning to realize losses and increase exchange activity. source: https://www.ethnews.com/long-term-bitcoin-holders-increase-selling-on-exchanges/

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel has completely divested his holdings in the Ethereum treasury firm ETHZilla. Crypto KOL Ted posted on X. The reasons behind Thiel's decision to exit ETHZilla remain unclear, but there is speculation that he might be shifting his focus to other ventures, such as Bitmine. Thiel's move has sparked discussions within the cryptocurrency community about potential strategic shifts in his investment portfolio.

​一年多前，对于众多寻求提升股价的企业来说，成为数字资产金库看起来是个轻而易举的决定。

AI的进步速度惊人，远超大多数人想象，可能比疫情更深远地改变社会。

在像 Polymarket 这样的平台上，大多数人（包括曾经的我）对“串关”（Parlay，即多重事件组合投注）的定价方式通常是：将每一项事件的概率简单相乘。

2026年2月18日，Polymarket宣布从这一天起，平台将在体育市场试点收取市价单手续费。第一波覆盖的赛事是美国大学篮球（NCAA）和意甲联赛，未来将逐步推广至所有体育赛事。

丙午新春，祝大家：策马扬鞭，收获满满；身体健康，财富稳稳！！

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OpenClaw社区规则：禁止聊金融或crypto。这或许是对Web3最犀利的批评，也是最真诚的忠告。

每一代人的财富密码，都写在这一代人集体达成的每一个新共识里。

世界秩序正在发生变化。比特币是对抗系统性不稳定的一种手段，这种不稳定源自游戏规则本身正在被改写。

在人工智能这场淘金热中，如果说英伟达在卖铲子，那么中国的基础设施建设者们（特高压、电力设备、绿色能源），掌握的是真正的水源。