Market News | Jefferies Says the First Hike Is About Credibility and the Rest Depend on the War
Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates this week, with Chair Kevin Warsh's commentary carrying more weight than the decision itself."We expect the Fed to raise rates, but Warsh's comments on the future direction of policy will be crucial," Kumar said in a report.On the path beyond September, Jefferies expects the Fed to deliver fewer than the 3.5 hikes markets currently price over the longer term.The Distinction Between the First Hike and the RestKumar's framing separates two different decisions that markets have been treating as one."From a credibility standpoint, the first rate hike may be necessary, but subsequent rate hikes will depend on how long the war lasts and the trend of oil prices," he said.That reads the September move as a response to market pressure rather than to the data alone. Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors described the same dynamic last week: "The market has now challenged both sides of policy. Bessent went first. Even tripling Treasury buybacks hasn't tamed the long end. Now, Warsh, after talking disinflation, is being forced towards higher rates."A credibility hike and an inflation-fighting cycle are different things. The first establishes that the Fed will act when pressed. The second requires a judgment that inflation is embedded rather than imported.Subsequent Moves Depend on a Variable the Fed Cannot ForecastThe condition Kumar attaches to further tightening is the notable part.Tying the path to the war's duration and oil prices makes policy contingent on a geopolitical variable outside the Fed's information set. Central banks can model labour markets and credit conditions. They cannot model whether Saudi Arabia reopens the East-West pipeline.That pipeline closure is the specific supply constraint. It runs from the Eastern Province oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and exists to provide an export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. With Hormuz disrupted and the bypass shut, Saudi crude has no unconstrained path to market — production fell 1.9 million barrels per day to 6.238 million, the lowest since 1990.Brent closed at $104.61, up more than 8% on the week. If that resolves, the inflation impulse driving the tightening case resolves with it.Markets Price 3.5 Hikes, Forecasters Are LowerThe gap between market pricing and house forecasts is wide enough to matter.Markets price roughly 3.5 hikes long term, equivalent to about 87.5 basis points. Bank of America expects 25 basis points this week with another 50 by year-end. RBC Capital Markets revised from rate cuts to three hikes. Both land at 75 basis points.Jefferies sits below all of them.The convergence of independent forecasters beneath market pricing suggests the futures curve is carrying a hedging premium rather than a central expectation. Traders flipped from assuming no hikes for the remainder of 2026 to hedging as much as 75 basis points in the two weeks since Jackson Hole — a repositioning that scale tends to overshoot.Warsh Has to Provide Guidance He Rejects as a PracticeThe bind Kumar identifies is structural rather than tactical.Warsh used Jackson Hole to reject forward guidance, arguing the practice has "overstayed its welcome" outside genuine crises and committing to "a discipline, not to a decision." The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos identified the consequence: the speech convinced investors a hike was likelier without specifying what would trigger one, leaving markets to fill the gap themselves.They filled it with 75 to 87.5 basis points.Wednesday's press conference asks him to correct that without doing the thing he says corrupts policymaking. Saying nothing leaves the overshoot in place. Saying enough to reset expectations is forward guidance by another name.The dot plot and updated projections do some of that work impersonally, which may be the intended route.The Decision Itself Is Near-Fully PricedThe two-year Treasury yield reached 4.61% after Friday's CPI as traders assigned nearly a 100% chance of a move, having risen from 4.20% before Jackson Hole.Core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected. Headline came in at 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually, both in line, with core at 2.4% year-over-year.The 10-year held flat at 4.95%, which is the detail supporting Kumar's view. A market pricing an embedded inflation problem would push long yields higher alongside short ones. A flat 10-year alongside a rising two-year says the market reads the energy shock as a level shift and the Fed's response as adequate.LMAX Group's Joel Kruger flagged what near-certain pricing implies: "We see greater potential for an outsized move in risk assets to the topside should the Fed ultimately fail to deliver on these hawkish expectations."Two Events Land Before the DecisionBitcoin traded around $77,300 after Friday's release, having reached $82,284 last week and dipped to $76,046 in the hours before CPI.Glassnode data shows nearly 8% of supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000, with the US spot ETF cohort's average cost basis in the same band and the 50-week moving average at $81,081. CryptoQuant's spot demand metric sits at −145,000 BTC after nearly turning positive in late August.The Clarity Act cloture vote falls Tuesday, requiring 60 votes to advance a bill Democrats have continued to flag over the absent ethics agreement. The Fed decides Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET with projections and the press conference following.
