Market News: Prediction Market Trading Volume Hits Record $702M Despite Rising Regulatory Scrutiny
Prediction markets kicked off 2026 with record-breaking activity, defying growing regulatory pressure in the United States and abroad.Total prediction market trading volume reached $701.7 million on Monday, the highest daily figure on record, according to Dune Analytics data cited by Gate Research.Key takeawaysPrediction market volume hit an all-time high of $701.7MKalshi accounted for roughly two-thirds of total activityAdoption continues despite U.S. and international regulatory scrutinyExchanges and wallets are accelerating prediction market integrationsKalshi dominates record prediction market volumeU.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi led trading activity, posting $465.9 million in volume, or roughly two-thirds of the daily total.Competitors Polymarket and Opinion collectively recorded around $100 million in trades.The latest figure surpassed the previous daily record of $666.6 million, set just one day earlier, underscoring the rapid acceleration of user activity across prediction platforms.Prediction markets have emerged as one of crypto’s fastest-growing use cases since mid-2025, driven by demand for real-time information markets covering politics, economics, sports, and global events.Crypto firms and Wall Street move into prediction marketsThe surge in activity has not gone unnoticed.Major crypto firms — including Coinbase and Gemini — have already integrated, or announced plans to integrate, prediction markets into their platforms.Self-custody wallets such as MetaMask have also expanded access to prediction markets, lowering barriers for retail participation.The momentum has attracted growing interest from Wall Street, with leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket now reportedly carrying multi-billion-dollar valuations, reflecting expectations that prediction markets could become a core financial primitive.Regulatory scrutiny intensifiesDespite the record activity, prediction markets are facing renewed regulatory attention.Earlier this month, an anonymous user on Polymarket placed a $30,000 wager predicting the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before his capture — a bet that paid out over $400,000 and triggered concerns about potential insider information.In the U.S., lawmakers in New York are reviewing proposed legislation that would restrict or ban certain prediction markets tied to politics, sports, and financial assets.Other states — including Connecticut, Nevada, and New Jersey — have also attempted to limit prediction market operations, prompting legal challenges from platform operators.On Monday, a Tennessee federal judge temporarily blocked state regulators from taking action against Kalshi, which had sued after being ordered to halt its sports-related contracts.International pressure is also mounting. In December, Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket, classifying prediction markets as a form of gambling under local law.Why it mattersThe surge to $702 million in daily volume highlights the resilience and growing demand for prediction markets — even as regulators attempt to rein them in.As platforms gain mainstream distribution through exchanges and wallets, prediction markets are increasingly viewed not just as speculative tools, but as alternative information markets that challenge traditional polling, forecasting, and derivatives.Whether regulators ultimately constrain or formalize the sector may determine whether prediction markets become a permanent fixture of global finance — or remain a contentious frontier at the edge of crypto innovation.
