据一位美国官员和一位知情人士透露，经过三周的战争，特朗普政府已经开始就下一阶段以及与伊朗和平谈判的可能形式进行初步讨论。美国总统特朗普周五表示，他正在考虑“逐步结束”战争，但美国官员表示，预计战斗还会持续两到三周。与此同时，特朗普的顾问们希望开始为外交斡旋做准备。消息人士透露，特朗普的特使库什纳和威特科夫正在参与有关潜在外交途径的讨论。任何结束战争的协议都必须包括重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、解决伊朗的高浓缩铀库存问题、并就伊朗的核计划、弹道导弹以及对该地区代理人的支持达成长期协议。另据其他消息人士透露，尽管埃及、卡塔尔和英国都曾为美伊传递信息，但近几日美伊之间并无直接接触。埃及和卡塔尔已告知美国和以色列，伊朗有意进行谈判，但条件非常强硬，伊朗的要求包括停火、保证未来不再发生战争以及赔偿。(Axios)

Coinglass 数据显示，过去 1 小时全网爆仓金额达 1.16 亿美元，其中多单爆仓 1.09 亿美元，空单爆仓 669 万美元，此外 BTC 爆仓金额达 4475 万美元，ETH 爆仓金额达 4202 万美元。

Bloomberg posted on X that Palantir's Maven Smart System has been designated as a program of record, ensuring stable funding and resources for its development. This move is expected to enhance the system's capabilities and support its integration into existing frameworks. The decision marks a significant step in the advancement of Palantir's technology, providing a reliable foundation for future innovations.

Bounce 在 X 平台发文表示已正式上线 Bounce Predict，该平台目前已针对苏富比即将举行的拍卖会开放预测市场，用户可以使用 USDT 对拍卖结果进行价格预测。

U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant has stated that there are occasions when escalating a situation is necessary to alleviate tensions. According to Jin10, Besant's remarks highlight a strategic approach to managing conflicts, suggesting that controlled escalation can serve as a tool to achieve diplomatic resolutions. This perspective underscores the complexity of international relations and the nuanced strategies employed by government officials to maintain stability.

The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review a case that could impact election deadlines in up to 29 states. Bloomberg posted on X that the case involves U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign against mail-in ballots. The decision could have significant implications for the electoral process across the country, potentially altering how and when votes are counted. The court's involvement underscores the ongoing debate over mail-in voting and its role in U.S. elections. As the case progresses, it will be closely watched for its potential to reshape election protocols nationwide.

Key takeawaysDonald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.Iran signaled defiance, with officials saying restrictions target only hostile nations.The crisis has disrupted a key global oil route handling ~20% of world crude trade.Brent crude oil surged above $105 per barrel, heightening inflation and market risks.Trump Threatens Energy Strikes if Hormuz Not ReopenedU.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the United States will “hit and obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.The ultimatum marks a sharp escalation in tensions, coming just weeks into an expanding conflict involving U.S., Israeli, and Iranian forces.The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, making its disruption a major concern for energy markets and the global economy.Iran Signals Defiance, Maintains RestrictionsIranian officials have pushed back on the ultimatum, indicating that the country is unlikely to comply.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said restrictions are targeted at vessels linked to countries involved in attacks on Iran, while allowing passage for neutral parties.Iran’s military also warned it could target U.S. and regional energy infrastructure, signaling the potential for further escalation.Missile Strikes Intensify ConflictThe standoff comes amid a surge in military activity.Iran launched missile strikes on southern Israel, injuring over 100 people, while Israel responded with airstrikes on targets in Tehran.The conflict has also raised concerns about nuclear facilities, including the Natanz enrichment site, prompting warnings from international watchdogs about the risk of escalation.Oil Prices Surge, Markets ReactThe geopolitical crisis has already had a significant impact on global markets.Brent crude rose above $105 per barrelEnergy supply risks intensified across the Gulf regionGlobal equities and risk assets faced renewed pressureCountries including the UK, France, Germany, and Japan have condemned the disruption and signaled readiness to support efforts to secure safe passage through the strait.Global Economic Risks MountThe prolonged closure or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz could have far-reaching consequences:Higher energy prices fueling inflationIncreased pressure on central banks and interest rate policyHeightened volatility across equities, commodities, and crypto marketsDespite mounting threats, analysts say Iran is unlikely to change course quickly, raising the risk of a prolonged geopolitical and economic shock.

据链上分析师 Ai 姨 监测，UnRektCapital (0x007...67a0) 已成为 Hyperliquid BTC 第二大空头头寸持有者。今日上午加仓后，该地址共持有 616 枚 BTC 的 40 倍杠杆空单，价值 4229 万美元，开仓价为 72144 美元，目前浮盈 215 万美元。此外，该地址还做空了 HYPE、TRUMP 及 SILVER，空单总头寸达 5858.8 万美元，并做多价值 546 万美元的 BRENTOIL。目前其五个头寸均为浮盈状态，累计浮盈超 660 万美元。

Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that he held discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump this afternoon regarding the situations in Iran, Israel, and Ukraine. According to Jin10, both leaders agreed to maintain close communication on these matters. Chancellor Merz indicated that their dialogue will continue in the near future.

A proposal in Europe aimed at restricting retail investors' access to catastrophe bonds is encountering significant resistance. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting that Fermat Capital Management has expressed concerns over the potential limitations. The firm, which specializes in insurance-linked securities, argues that such restrictions could hinder market growth and limit investment opportunities for individual investors. The proposal is part of broader regulatory efforts to protect retail investors, but critics argue it may have unintended consequences on market dynamics. The debate continues as stakeholders weigh the potential impacts of the proposed changes.

3月17日，万事达卡宣布以 18 亿美元收购 BVNK，其中包含3亿美元的业绩对赌部分。

就在刚刚，南半球那个爱冲浪、爱袋鼠的国家——澳大利亚，突然扔出了一颗“深水炸弹”。

长期以来，无论监管机构或从业人员均存在将代币等同于证券的惯性思维。

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自伊朗战争爆发近三周以来市场一直抱持一个令人宽慰的押注：能源供应中断将是短暂的，霍尔木兹海峡将重新开放，美联储的降息周期将如期恢复。过去一周，这个押注彻底崩塌。

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麦格理预测，美联储下一次动作将是加息，最有可能是明年上半年，即使届时沃什可能已经上位，但他毕竟只有一票......