US Weekly Jobless Claims Rise Marginally Amid Stable Labor Market
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased marginally last week, suggesting no material shift in labor market conditions at the end of August, according to Reuters. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended August 29, the Labor Department said Thursday, roughly in line with the 205,000 forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Claims are hovering in the lower end of their 189,000-230,000 range for this year, consistent with what economists describe as a "slow hire, slow fire" labor market.
Despite robust domestic demand, employers remain hesitant to boost head count as they navigate aggressive trade and immigration policies. A separate report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed announced hiring plans increased 37% in the first eight months of this year versus 2025, though it noted those positions do not appear to be filled quickly. Planned job cuts increased 58% to 52,881 in August, but announced layoffs so far this year are down 41% from a year earlier, with low layoffs anchoring the labor market and broader economy. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday described employment as having risen "very slightly" in August, with healthy demand most frequent in manufacturing, construction and some services, while retail and hospitality saw falling demand. Continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.779 million in the week ended August 22.
The claims data have no bearing on August's employment report as they fall outside the survey period. The government is expected to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls rebounded by 56,000 jobs last month after declining 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate forecast unchanged at 4.1%, according to a Reuters survey. The anticipated recovery would partly reflect a rebound in local government education payrolls, though some economists said a second straight month of job losses could not be ruled out after Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of Haitians recently ended. In the absence of labor-market deterioration, economists expect the Fed to raise rates as early as this month to combat inflation stemming from import tariffs and the US-led war with Iran, after Chair Kevin Warsh said last week the central bank will "have work to do" if it does not gain confidence that inflation is falling to its 2% target.
