在像 Polymarket 这样的平台上，大多数人（包括曾经的我）对“串关”（Parlay，即多重事件组合投注）的定价方式通常是：将每一项事件的概率简单相乘。

The Digital Chamber, a blockchain advocacy group, has introduced a new initiative aimed at supporting prediction markets and clarifying regulatory frameworks for the sector in the United States. According to Cointelegraph, the group announced the formation of the Prediction Markets Working Group on Tuesday, outlining a comprehensive multi-year strategy to address what it describes as a "misunderstood segment of finance." The initial step involves sending a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig, commending his efforts to maintain federal oversight of prediction markets while advocating for an end to regulation through enforcement. The Digital Chamber expressed appreciation for Chair Selig’s recent statements about the CFTC staff's intent to provide specific rulemaking and guidance for this rapidly expanding segment of the financial and digital asset industries. The group highlighted the challenges operators face due to regulatory ambiguity and overlapping jurisdictions between federal and state regulators. Looking ahead, the Digital Chamber plans to continue its engagement with the CFTC, develop policy principles, submit policy recommendations, publish research, and build a coalition of industry stakeholders. Additionally, the group intends to participate in litigation through friend-of-the-court briefings to educate courts on the CFTC’s historical regulatory exclusivity over the sector. The initiative comes amid heightened scrutiny from state governments and regulators. Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, recently faced a civil enforcement action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which seeks to halt Kalshi from offering "unlicensed wagering" in the state. Both Kalshi and competitor Polymarket have encountered resistance from state regulators, who argue that these platforms are offering unlicensed gambling products. In response, Polymarket filed a federal lawsuit against Massachusetts to preemptively block potential enforcement actions, asserting that the CFTC holds primary oversight over the sector. CFTC Chair Selig has reiterated the agency's long-standing regulatory role, urging state governments to respect the CFTC’s authority or face legal challenges. Utah Governor Spencer Cox, however, criticized prediction markets as a form of gambling, arguing they are detrimental to Americans' lives. The ongoing debate underscores the complex regulatory landscape surrounding prediction markets in the U.S.

2026年2月18日，Polymarket宣布从这一天起，平台将在体育市场试点收取市价单手续费。第一波覆盖的赛事是美国大学篮球（NCAA）和意甲联赛，未来将逐步推广至所有体育赛事。

据 Lookonchain 监测，10 小时前，BitMEX 联创 Arthur Hayes (0x475...BD5d) 向 Bybit 存入 1000 枚 ETH，价值 199 万美元。

Ethereum price found support near $1,920 and recovered some losses. ETH is now consolidating and faces key hurdles near $2,020. Ethereum is attempting a fresh recovery wave above $1,965. The price is trading below $2,000 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average source: https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/eth/ethereum-price-anchors-at-1920/

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte has declared her intention to run for the presidency. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting her announcement as a significant development in the country's political landscape. Duterte, who is the daughter of current President Rodrigo Duterte, has been a prominent figure in Philippine politics. Her decision to enter the presidential race is expected to have a considerable impact on the upcoming elections. As the political scene in the Philippines evolves, Duterte's candidacy will be closely watched by both domestic and international observers.

丙午新春，祝大家：策马扬鞭，收获满满；身体健康，财富稳稳！！

null source: https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2023959522537062654

In the past week, the crypto privacy protocol Zama has seen the highest number of unfollows from top Twitter figures, according to ChainCatcher. Influential personalities who have recently unfollowed Zama include anonymous Twitter KOL Inversebrah (@inversebrah), crypto KOL CBB0FE (@Cbb0fe), and renowned analyst 0xWizard (@0xcryptowizard). Other projects experiencing significant unfollows from top Twitter figures include Moca Network, Drift Protocol, and Astroport.

The Prediction Markets Working Group, launched by The Digital Chamber, will champion the sector’s values while advocating for the CFTC to maintain primary oversight. source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-digital-chamber-launches-prediction-market-working-group?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

据链上分析师 Ai 姨监测，曾在 1 月 14 日以均价 3327 美元建仓的两个地址 (0xb12...FfAA, 0x826...3cdF) 于 5 分钟前再次买入 2600 枚 ETH，价值约 516.1 万美元，提出价格为 1985.19 美元。截至目前，该主体持有的 4200 枚 ETH 平均成本为 2496.38 美元，目前浮亏 213.3 万美元。

Japanese companies such as SoftBank, Toshiba, and Hitachi have shown interest in a U.S. gas project unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump. Bloomberg posted on X, citing trade minister Ryosei Akazawa, who informed reporters about the development on Wednesday. The involvement of these major Japanese firms highlights the international interest in the U.S. energy sector under the current administration.

Spot gold prices have seen a 1.00% intraday increase, reaching $4907.25 per ounce. According to NS3.AI, this upward movement suggests a short-term bullish trend in the gold market. The rise in gold prices could potentially affect investor behavior in related asset classes.

金色财经推出加密货币和区块链行业早报《金色早8点》2971期，为您提供最新、最快的数字货币和区块链行业新闻。

OpenClaw社区规则：禁止聊金融或crypto。这或许是对Web3最犀利的批评，也是最真诚的忠告。

每一代人的财富密码，都写在这一代人集体达成的每一个新共识里。

世界秩序正在发生变化。比特币是对抗系统性不稳定的一种手段，这种不稳定源自游戏规则本身正在被改写。

在人工智能这场淘金热中，如果说英伟达在卖铲子，那么中国的基础设施建设者们（特高压、电力设备、绿色能源），掌握的是真正的水源。

如果把加密行业比作一副牙齿，那么上币（listing）在这些年的路径就像是一次“行业正畸”的过程。

桥水创始人达利欧近日发布重磅长文，正式宣告世界已进入“大周期”的第六阶段，即一个没有规则、充满混乱、强权即公理的时期。