A recent market breakout has been supported by significant participation and late-session buying, raising questions about its sustainability. According to CoinDesk, while the surge in activity has been notable, the underlying on-chain activity remains weak, casting doubt on the long-term durability of this trend. The market's recent performance has been characterized by a surge in participation, with investors showing increased interest during the late trading sessions. This heightened activity has contributed to a breakout, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. However, the lack of robust on-chain activity raises concerns about whether this momentum can be maintained over time. Despite the apparent enthusiasm among market participants, the weak on-chain metrics suggest that the current breakout may not be as stable as it appears. The discrepancy between market participation and on-chain activity highlights the need for caution among investors, as the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain. As the market continues to evolve, the balance between participation and on-chain activity will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of this breakout.

On April 16, according to Jin10, Macquarie Bank strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry highlighted in a report that central banks with the most hawkish stances in response to rising oil prices might revert to pre-war policies if a peace agreement is reached and oil prices remain low. They noted that the Bank of England, and possibly the European Central Bank, have the greatest potential to return to their pre-war positions, as they became notably hawkish since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Consequently, expectations for these policy rates may become less 'hawkish.'

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has identified that Bitcoin has entered a historically undervalued zone. According to NS3.AI, this observation comes after the gold-to-Bitcoin value ratio dropped below two sigma. Van de Poppe noted that a shift from gold to Bitcoin is already underway, referencing similar periods in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, which were followed by significant Bitcoin uptrends.

South Korean government ministries are set to trial a blockchain-based digital currency for managing business promotion expenses, replacing traditional credit cards. According to NS3.AI, the Ministry of Economy and Finance is spearheading this initiative as part of its ongoing efforts to integrate blockchain technology into national treasury fund management. This marks the ministry's second attempt at utilizing blockchain, following last month's pilot program that distributed government subsidies as deposit tokens to businesses installing electric vehicle charging stations.

Ripple has announced a new partnership with a Korean insurance company, marking its first such deal in the region. According to CoinDesk, this collaboration aims to facilitate near real-time settlement of Korean treasuries. However, the official statement did not specify any live volume or timeline for the implementation of this service. This strategic move by Ripple highlights its ongoing efforts to expand its presence in the Asian market. The partnership is expected to enhance the efficiency of treasury operations for the Korean insurer, potentially setting a precedent for similar collaborations in the future. While the specifics of the deal remain undisclosed, the focus on real-time settlement aligns with Ripple's broader mission to streamline financial transactions globally. As the company continues to forge new alliances, the financial industry will be watching closely to see how these developments unfold.

美国总统特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔即将就一个问题展开对决：如果特朗普未能及时让其选定的主席继任者凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）获得确认，现任的鲍威尔是否有权继续留任。沃什定于下周二出席参议院银行委员会听证会，但他可能难以在鲍威尔 5 月 15 日主席任期结束前获得国会批准。特朗普周三表示，如果鲍威尔不“按时”离任，他将解雇鲍威尔，如果沃什不能很快获得确认，特朗普与鲍威尔发生正面冲突的几率将上升。这场争议发生之际，特朗普多次抨击鲍威尔不屈服于他降息的要求，称这位美联储主席是“白痴”和“倔驴”，因为他拒绝降低借贷成本。分析师表示，随着特朗普最新攻击后鲍威尔留任理事的可能性上升，特朗普的策略有可能削弱沃什重塑央行的努力。（英国金融时报）

Tech shares propelled the Nasdaq to 24,016.02 and the S&P 500 to 7,022.95 on Wednesday. According to NS3.AI, Bitcoin reached $75,229, marking a 1.07% increase over 24 hours and nearly a 10% rise over the past two weeks. The market gains coincided with U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that the US-Iran war was nearing its end, although he noted that the final outcome hinges on a deal between the two nations.

Citi has released a research report indicating that Lens Technology's (06613.HK) first-quarter performance fell short of expectations. According to Jin10, the company's management attributed the weak results to reduced procurement by clients due to rising memory prices and foreign exchange losses. Management anticipates that the impact of foreign exchange will diminish in the coming quarters, with revenue contributions from iOS foldable models starting in May and a potential recovery in Android demand in the second half of 2026. In response to the first-quarter results, Citi has lowered its 2026 net profit forecast for Lens Technology by 13% to 4.36 billion yuan, while maintaining its earnings estimates for 2027 and 2028. The target price for Lens Technology's H-shares has been reduced from HKD 27 to HKD 25, with a "buy" rating, and the target price for A-shares has been adjusted from 32 yuan to 30 yuan, with a "neutral" rating. Despite the disappointing performance in the first half of 2026, Citi believes that Lens Technology could benefit from restocking sentiment for iOS products from late Q2 to late Q3. The bank expresses a preference for H-shares due to better risk-reward potential.

Cosmos SDK's GitHub repository indicates a shift in the licensing of its Enterprise module from the Apache-2.0 open-source license to a 'Source Available Evaluation License.' According to Foresight News, this new license permits only non-commercial evaluation, testing, and educational use, requiring separate commercial licenses for business applications. Greg Osuri, founder of the application chain Akash Network, expressed concerns over this change, stating that Akash can no longer use the module for production or commercial purposes, nor can it offer services based on this component to third parties. Previously, Akash planned to migrate to a shared security layer while maintaining some Cosmos integration for interoperability. However, the new licensing terms make it nearly impossible for Akash to remain within the Cosmos ecosystem, which Osuri describes as a 'hostile' adjustment.

Bitcoin's price increased to approximately $74,935 during the Asian trading session, marking a 0.7% rise over the past 24 hours and a 5.4% increase over the week. According to ChainCatcher, the recent surge is primarily driven by spot trading rather than a broad resurgence in risk appetite. QCP Capital notes that the perpetual contract funding rates for Bitcoin remain negative, and open interest is declining, indicating that short sellers are increasing hedging rather than closing positions passively. The options market also reflects caution, with short-term implied volatility remaining low and the one-month term below the three-month term. The risk reversal indicator shows a higher demand for downside protection compared to upside bets, suggesting traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase gains. QCP describes this movement as a "rebound" rather than a trend reversal. On the macroeconomic front, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a return to risk appetite, with gold remaining near high levels, indicating ongoing demand for safe-haven assets. Analysts suggest that the current market behavior is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire, leading to an "emotional recovery," rather than the resolution of core risks. Ethereum has shown relative strength, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315. Additionally, on-chain transaction volume and stablecoin supply have reached historical highs, indicating a potential rotation of funds into high beta assets. However, the market is advised to monitor upcoming risk events to determine the sustainability of this upward trend.

Arthur Hayes,Arthur Hayes：帝国、海峡与印钞机 比特币的三种命运剧本 金色财经,霍尔木兹海峡的三种场景，如何影响比特币价格

丹麦的加密货币采用率在欧洲仍处于最低水平之一，仅有4%的公民持有数字资产——远低于该地区其他国家，这些国家的采用率通常超过10%。

​算力货币Token正在重塑AI时代的价值坐标，但它的透明，价值却是黑盒AI行业仍在寻找一个真正能为结果标价的锚。

谷歌已推出一款适用于 macOS 的原生 Gemini 应用，让 Mac 用户能够通过键盘快捷键直接在桌面上快速调用其 AI 助手。该应用支持用户分析屏幕内容、处理文件，并在无需切换应用的情况下使用 Gemini，旨在将其融入日常工作流程。

任何实体，无论它曾经是什么，都可以被重新定义为AI公司。只要故事足够动人，资本就会为它买单。

量子计算的理论突破正在以超出预期的速度推进，这一趋势是真实的。但"理论突破加速"不等于"攻击工具已就绪"。量子计算仍面临物理、工程、成本三大维度的根本性挑战。

有消息人士透露，WLFI实际操盘手是知名华人大割。

沃什若顺利接掌美联储，其政策将呈现 “货币纪律严格、数字金融开放、监管框架清晰” 组合，推动加密资产从 “边缘投机品” 转向 “主流合规资产类别”。

真正能拯救经济的唯一出路，是由私营部门引领、技术创新驱动的经济爆发式增长。

在注意力经济时代，叙事本身就是一种资产。 但它的价值，只在有人相信时存在。