Odaily Seer 先知频道监测显示，在 Polymarket“NBA 常规赛活塞对战猛龙”预测事件中，某盈利超 160 万美元账号（地址：0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684）购入 11 万美元活塞让分 3.5 战胜猛龙，开仓价为 48¢。NBA 常规赛活塞对战猛龙于北京时间今日 8 点开赛。目前 NBA 常规赛已进入尾声阶段，活塞战绩为 54 胜 21 负，排名东部第 1 位；猛龙战绩为 42 胜 32 负，排名东部第 5 位。Odaily Seer 先知频道持续关注预测市场，在定价之前，看见变化。

Solana 原生代币 SOL 在上周三于 93 美元遇阻后回落约 11%，近期表现明显弱于整体加密市场，并多次测试 80 美元支撑位。与此同时，Solana 网络费用已连续两个月下滑，市场担忧其价格或进一步回测 75 美元水平。链上数据显示，Solana 当前总锁仓量（TVL）约为 63 亿美元，仍显著落后于以太坊的 541 亿美元。不过，过去 30 天 Solana 网络费用仍高出 80%，主要因以太坊通过 Layer2 Rollup 及数据 Blob 机制降低主网费用。具体来看，Solana 3 月网络费用降至 1850 万美元，较 1 月的 3000 万美元下降 42%，主要受去中心化交易所（DEX）交易量萎缩影响。数据显示，Solana DEX 交易量降至 555 亿美元，为 2024 年 9 月以来最低水平。相比之下，以太坊 3 月 DEX 交易量为 410 亿美元，较两个月前下降 23%。但若叠加 Base、Arbitrum、Polygon 及 Optimism 等 Layer2 网络，其 DEX 市场份额已由 1 月的 33%升至 42%，对 Solana 主导地位形成挑战，也在一定程度上解释了 SOL 当前的承压走势。不过，从生态基本面来看，Solana 仍具备支撑。过去 30 天内，Solana 拥有 13 个收入超过 100 万美元的 DApp，领先于以太坊的 11 个，以及 BNB Chain 和 Base 各 4 个的水平。包括 Helium Network 等项目在内的协议收入，持续吸引开发者与资金关注。整体来看，尽管 DEX 活跃度下滑拖累短期表现，但 Solana 生态的盈利能力与开发者吸引力仍在，市场尚无充分证据表明 SOL 将因网络费用下降而必然跌破 75 美元支撑位。（Cointelegraph）

According to Jin10, the Indian rupee could fall to a historic low of 100 against the U.S. dollar if the conflict in Iran continues. Despite efforts by Indian authorities over the past year to mitigate the rupee's approximately 10% decline, strategists warn these measures may only offer temporary relief. Analysts from Wells Fargo indicate that rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation and the current account deficit, accelerating the rupee's depreciation. Options market pricing supports this view, suggesting expectations for the rupee to weaken further towards the 100 mark. As one of Asia's worst-performing currencies this year, the rupee's ongoing decline has prompted the Reserve Bank of India to implement its most stringent measures in over a decade, capping banks' end-of-day positions in the onshore currency market at $100 million. This move forces banks to scale back and limit large unilateral bets on the rupee. However, Monday's market performance highlighted the limitations of this measure, as the rupee initially surged 1.4% due to regulatory actions but quickly reversed to a new low of 95.125. Options pricing indicates traders see a 13% probability of the rupee breaching 100 by the end of June, with this likelihood rising to 41% by year-end.

Foreign central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries to the lowest level since 2012 to support their economies and currencies during the ongoing conflict in Iran. According to BlockBeats, the value of Treasuries held by official institutions at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has decreased by $82 billion since February 25. Some central banks have intervened in foreign exchange markets to bolster their national currencies, often involving the sale of U.S. dollars to address crises. Since February 27, the Central Bank of Turkey alone has sold $22 billion worth of foreign government bonds. Analysts indicate that supply shocks have placed significant pressure on global central banks.

彭博高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 在 X 平台表示，在美国股市下跌、黄金表现低迷的背景下（两者“零相关性”失效令市场意外），投资者正大举涌入美国国债 ETF。3 月美国国债 ETF 资金净流入约 300 亿美元，超过近期月均水平的两倍，主要集中于超短期产品，如 SGOV 与 BIL，但当前市场似乎没有太多适合投资的“避险资产”，因此较优策略或为持有现金并保持耐心观望。此前消息，巴菲特披露伯克希尔哈撒韦本周购入价值 170 亿美元的美国国债。

Arab officials have stated that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is preparing to assist the United States and its allies in securing the Strait of Hormuz through military means following an attack by Iran. According to Odaily, this move would make the UAE the first Gulf nation to directly engage in the conflict. Officials have indicated that the UAE is lobbying the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution authorizing such military action. A UAE official disclosed that its diplomats have urged the U.S. and major military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to forcibly open the strait. The official added that the Iranian regime believes it is fighting for survival and is willing to risk global economic repercussions by blocking the strait. The UAE is actively assessing its potential military role in ensuring the security of the strait, including assisting in mine clearance and providing other support services. Additionally, some Arab officials mentioned that the UAE has proposed that the U.S. should occupy strategic islands within the waterway, including Abu Musa Island, which has been under Iranian control for half a century but is claimed by the UAE.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has expressed optimism about the conclusion of the conflict in Iran. According to Odaily, Rubio stated that the end of the war is in sight. His remarks come amid ongoing discussions and efforts to resolve the situation in the region.

纳斯达克上市公司 TON Strategy 公布 2025 年全年财报，其中披露截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日持有 2.197 亿枚 TON（公允价值约 3.568 亿美元），去年全年获得 218.5 万枚 TON 质押奖励，此外该公司的数字资产总价值达到 3.568 亿美元，2025 年总营收达 1280 万美元，但经营亏损扩大至 3640 万美元。（Globenewswire）

美国国务卿鲁比奥表示，我们能看到伊朗战争的终点线，没有任何国家正在以任何方式阻碍我们的使命来帮助伊朗，在某个时候有可能与伊朗进行直接会晤。(金十)

Singapore's private home prices are projected to increase at a slower rate in the first quarter of the year. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting that despite ongoing demand for new homes in the city-state, the pace of price growth is expected to decelerate. This trend reflects a shift in the real estate market dynamics, as buyers and investors adjust to changing economic conditions and market expectations. The moderation in price growth comes amid various factors influencing the housing market, including government policies and global economic trends. Analysts suggest that while demand remains robust, the rate of increase in home prices will likely be tempered compared to previous quarters.

最有钱的玩家都退坑，区块链游戏过去曾作为加密行业最有潜力“破圈”的王牌叙事，今日是否已经日暮途穷？

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