According to ChainCatcher, on-chain data analyst Murphy has reported that Bitcoin options with a nominal value of approximately $23.8 billion are set to expire on December 26. This includes quarterly options, annual options, and a significant number of structured products. The expiration is expected to lead to a 'concentrated clearing and repricing of risk exposure' in the BTC derivatives market at the end of the year. While prices may be structurally constrained before expiration, uncertainty is likely to increase afterward.
Data indicates that there is a substantial accumulation of open interest (OI) near the current BTC spot price at two key positions: a put option at $85,000 with 14,674 BTC and a call option at $100,000 with 18,116 BTC. This activity is not typical of retail investors but rather large-scale, long-term funds, likely including ETF hedging positions, BTC treasury companies, and large family offices that hold significant amounts of BTC.
The put option at the $85,000 strike price reflects a strong demand for downside risk hedging at this level, with buyers taking the initiative. Similarly, the large accumulation of call OI at the $100,000 strike price does not necessarily indicate market optimism but rather shows that long-term funds are willing to forgo potential upside beyond this level in exchange for current cash flow and controlled risk.
By purchasing lower puts and selling higher calls, BTC's return distribution is compressed into a manageable range. With OI already highly developed, this options corridor between $85,000 and $100,000 is expected to exert a structural influence on BTC prices, creating 'implicit suppression above, passive buffering below, and fluctuating within the middle range' before December 26.
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