Bitcoin may benefit from the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and liquidity injections, but BTC options pricing shows traders see limited probability of a rally above $100,000 in the near term, even as macro conditions shift in favor of risk assets.Fed Cuts Rates to 3.75%, Opens Liquidity Valve With Bond PurchasesThe Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, lowering the upper bound to 3.75%, but the committee revealed an unusually split vote, with two members preferring no cut.Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, citing labor-market softening and persistent inflation risks.More consequential for markets was the Fed’s announcement of a $40 billion short-term Treasury purchase program, reversing years of balance-sheet reduction. After peaking near $9 trillion in 2022, the balance sheet now sits around $6.6 trillion.The Fed’s re-entry into bond markets is designed to bolster liquidity, allowing banks more capacity to lend and stimulating investment during an economic slowdown.Bitcoin Options Market: 70% Probability BTC Stays Below $100K by JanuaryDespite improved liquidity conditions, Bitcoin derivatives traders remain cautious.The $100,000 January 30 call option trades at a premium of $3,440, implying roughly a 70% chance BTC stays under $100K through the end of January, based on Black–Scholes modeling.Just one month ago, the same call traded near $12,700, reflecting a sharp drop in bullish conviction.This expiration lies just two days after the next FOMC meeting on Jan. 28, adding macro uncertainty. According to CME FedWatch, markets assign 24% odds of another rate cut at that meeting, though visibility is limited due to the recent U.S. government data-release disruptions.Why the Fed Boosts Stocks More Than BitcoinEquities respond more directly to lower rates as cheaper financing supports earnings growth.Bitcoin, however, has lagged gold and has struggled to attract strong inflows from investors repositioning out of short-term bonds.S&P 500 is up 13% over the past six months.5-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped from 4.1% to 3.72%.Despite favorable macro shifts, whales and market makers remain unconvinced that Bitcoin can sustain a breakout, especially as store-of-value demand favors gold amid rising U.S. debt concerns.What Could Change the Outlook?Analysts note that a spike in equity risk premiums, especially in frothy segments like AI-related stocks, could redirect capital into alternative assets — including Bitcoin.But for now, BTC remains capped below $100K with derivatives positioning signaling skepticism toward a durable rally.
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