Onchain Data Casts Doubt on Insider-Trading Theory in NYT’s ‘Suspicious’ Election Betting Story

Onchain data casts doubt on the theory that a trader used advance access to New York Times/Siena polls to profit from election bets on Polymarket and Kalshi. The Block’s review found the trader had a history of large, risky trades and may have placed Kalshi bets on Nebraska about 10 minutes after a poll was published, according to The Block. Experts said other explanations, such as directional bets by a wealthy trader, fit the evidence better, though foul play could not be ruled out.