STOCKS | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's “Timely Return” Phrase Raises Investor Unease

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% at its October FOMC meeting, while Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained too high. According to Sina Finance, citing The Motley Fool, Warsh said he was encouraged by progress since the September 16 rate hike but repeatedly emphasized a “timely return” of inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, which inflation had exceeded for 67 consecutive months. CME FedWatch showed a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 FOMC meeting and a 46% probability of cumulative hikes totaling at least 75 basis points by mid-September 2027. The article said more aggressive rate increases could weigh on stocks, noting that the S&P 500’s Shiller price-to-earnings ratio exceeded 40 in early 2026, a level seen only three times in its 156-year history.