UBS Sees NAND and DRAM Shortages Lasting Into 2027 as Global Chip Sales Fall 9.8% in July

UBS said global chip sales fell 9.8% month on month in July, with memory sales down 16.3%, but the decline was mainly driven by lower shipments rather than weaker pricing, according to Jiemian News. UBS said average DRAM and NAND selling prices rose 8.3% and 9.8%, respectively, and forecast third-quarter DDR prices will rise 22% quarter on quarter while NAND contract prices will increase 20%. The bank said DRAM and NAND supply shortages are likely to persist until 2027. UBS also said the semiconductor upcycle remains intact: July integrated-circuit sales excluding memory rose 0.9%, logic-device sales increased 2.2% to a record $37 billion, and global semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $1.63 trillion in 2026, with the cycle lasting at least through 2028. JPMorgan separately raised its forecast for 2026 global semiconductor sales to $1.73 trillion. The report also said Apple may have recently signed a three- to five-year NAND flash supply agreement with no price cap, extending long-term contracts beyond HBM into NAND and indicating stronger pricing power for suppliers.