European diesel’s premium to crude hit a record in early September, with the crack spread for diesel delivered to southern Europe reaching $104.08 a barrel at one point. According to Sina Finance, the move was driven by Russia’s extended diesel export ban, supply disruptions from Middle East conflict, and continued inventory drawdowns.
On September 1, the southern Europe diesel crack spread rose to $104.08 a barrel, its first move above $100, before easing to $100.79 the next day. Northern Europe’s comparable spread was $99.66 and $96.53 over the same period.
On September 2, southern Europe diesel wholesale prices reached $198.73 a barrel, while northern Europe prices were $194.47. Although still below the April 2 record high of $215 a barrel, southern Europe diesel prices were more than twice the corresponding North Sea crude price.
According to Sina Finance, estimates put the global diesel market short by about 1.3 million to 1.4 million barrels a day, equal to 15% to 20% of normal international diesel transport volumes. Russia extended its diesel export ban to September 30, Asian refinery exports were limited, and U.S. inventories continued to decline.
Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining at Wood Mackenzie, said global diesel supply still has not met demand and that the market is drawing down inventories. Josh Michalowski, head of European diesel pricing at Argus, said prices may ease in the short term, but planned refinery maintenance in Europe in September and October could push crack spreads higher. Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, said tight supplies of refined products from the Middle East and Russia are keeping the market tight.
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