Citrini analyst Jukan said recent declines in memory chip stocks may reflect not only leveraged liquidation but also market pricing of pressure from future supply expansion. According to Odaily, he said most research firms and industry observers still expect supply and demand tightness to ease starting in 2028, even if the global memory shortage lasts through 2027.
Jukan said market participants may already be factoring in the effect of new capacity after 2028 as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announce large-scale fab expansion plans. He added that, in the traditional memory industry, stock prices usually reflect a peak in memory prices about two quarters in advance.
He also said the AI-driven cycle may change that pattern, with the market potentially pricing future supply and demand changes three or even four quarters ahead. Jukan said the logic of falling prices leading to weaker revenue in the traditional memory cycle may not fully apply to AI infrastructure markets.
Jukan said the key difference is that in the AI era, demand growth from lower prices may cushion the downside from a memory price cycle. If that logic holds, he said future earnings volatility for memory companies may be lower than in past cycles and may also support higher valuation levels.
Catherine
