U.S. June CPI Forecasts Cluster Around 3.7% to 4.0% in Bank Estimates

U.S. June year-over-year CPI (not seasonally adjusted) had a prior reading of +4.2% and a consensus expectation of +3.8%. According to Jin10, forecasts for the June CPI year-over-year rate included +3.7% from JPMorgan, Royal Bank of Canada, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, Jefferies Group, UBS Group, Wells Fargo, and +3.8% from Citibank, Bank of America, Barclays, UniCredit Bank, HSBC, ING, Nomura Securities, and Morgan Stanley. Other estimates listed were +3.9% from Pantheon Macroeconomics, ABN AMRO, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs Group, Hellenic Bank, Deutsche Bank, Capital Economics, Societe Generale, Lloyds Bank, Bank of Montreal, and +4.0% from Berenberg, DBS Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Scotiabank. U.S. June core CPI year-over-year (not seasonally adjusted) had a prior reading of +2.9% and a consensus expectation of +2.8%. According to Jin10, forecasts for the June core CPI year-over-year rate included +2.7% from Deutsche Bank; +2.8% from ABN AMRO, Citibank, UniCredit Bank, Goldman Sachs Group, HSBC, JPMorgan, Nomura Securities, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Jefferies Group, Societe Generale, TD Securities, UBS Group, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley; +2.9% from Bank of America, Capital Economics, ING, Sumitomo Mitsui, Danske Bank, Scotiabank, Standard Chartered, UniCredit Bank, and Hellenic Bank; and +3.0% from BNP Paribas.