UBS Sees Memory Chip Revenue at $992 Billion in 2026, Rising to $1.76 Trillion in 2027

China’s A-share semiconductor equipment sector traded higher as UBS said the memory chip cycle is “strengthening further” on sustained AI demand and ongoing long-term supply agreement (LTA) negotiations, with structural supply tightness likely to last at least until mid-2028, according to Jiemian News. UBS forecast total memory industry revenue of $992 billion for full-year 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027. Guojin Securities said capacity shifts toward high-end memory such as HBM and DDR5 are tightening supply of general-purpose memory, supporting higher volumes and prices and lifting equipment demand. It added that overseas equipment delivery lead times have extended to 12–24 months, while Chinese equipment makers are accelerating overseas expansion on faster delivery and cost advantages; testing and metrology tools, where domestic penetration is 1%–10%, were cited as a key substitution segment. As of 1:58 p.m. on July 10, 2026, constituents of the SSE STAR Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Theme Index (950125) were mixed, with Shanghai Hejing up 10.23%, GRITEK Silicon up 6.90% and Aisen up 5.37%, while CSSC Special Gas was the top decliner. The Penghua STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (589020) last traded at 3.27 yuan, with intraday turnover of 34.36% and turnover value of 1.285 billion yuan; average daily turnover over the past week was 896 million yuan as of July 9. As of June 30, 2026, the index’s top 10 holdings accounted for 71.12% of its weight.