Bernstein Expects Memory Upcycle to Continue Through 2027 as DRAM Price Gains Moderate

Bernstein said the current memory upcycle is expected to continue through 2027, though the phase of rapid price increases has passed. According to Odaily, the Wall Street investment bank’s monthly storage industry report showed average DRAM prices rose 74% quarter over quarter in the second quarter. Bernstein said demand from servers and mobile devices provided strong support, with Server DRAM rising more than 60% and Mobile DRAM nearly 80%. It also noted tight supply and demand for server DDR5 in the spot market. The firm forecast DRAM price increases in the third quarter will slow to 13% to 18%, adding that weak end-demand for consumer electronics may gradually weigh on the market. Bernstein said the NAND market showed mixed trends, with wafer spot prices weakening, while higher prices for smartphone and SSD storage helped lift overall contract prices by 60%. It added that AI cloud providers locking in long-term contracts are a key variable in the cycle. Bernstein maintained positive ratings on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, while taking a cautious view on Kioxia. It said memory prices are expected to gradually return to normal from the second half of 2027 to 2028 as capacity is released and long-term contracts are implemented.